Best of LinkedIn: Future Mobility & Market Evolution CW 25/ 26

00:00:00: Brought to you by Thomas Allgaier and Frennis, this edition highlights key LinkedIn posts on future mobility in market evolution in weeks twenty-five and twenty six.

00:00:07: Frenis supports tier one automotive suppliers with early stage market validation for their R&D efforts By commanding secondary research direct OEM expert interviews And facilitated customer meetings.

00:00:19: You can find more info in the description.

00:00:20: Right, so let's get into it!

00:00:22: Yeah welcome everyone to this deep dive.

00:00:24: we've got a lot of ground to cover.

00:00:25: today We are looking at some of the most fascinating future mobility trends that we have curated from across linkedin over calendar weeks twenty-five and twenty six

00:00:34: And you know were pulling from industry executives urban planners Mobility analysts.

00:00:39: It is really diverse set of voices It

00:00:40: really is.

00:00:41: The overarching theme which was just wild to me Is that the mobility industry finally leaving that flashy sci fi Honeyman.

00:00:48: Oh,

00:00:49: totally.

00:00:49: the era of The Shiny Pilot project is basically over

00:00:52: right.

00:00:53: we're entering this phase Of like rigorous operational maturity.

00:00:58: so I want to start by having you imagine something.

00:01:00: You're cruising down the highway Right?

00:01:01: You're in the back of a driverless taxi okay

00:01:03: picturing it.

00:01:05: suddenly the cars computer calculates that Absolute safest maneuver, like the mathematically optimal choice is to just blast through an active freeway construction zone.

00:01:16: Wow

00:01:16: right there it

00:01:16: exactly sending orange plastic cones flying in every direction rather than Just slowing down.

00:01:21: yeah and that actually happened.

00:01:23: Yeah

00:01:24: It did And I think that tells us everything we need to know about The current state of mobility.

00:01:27: Right because We are watching Robo taxes cross That chasm from experimental tech To everyday utility.

00:01:34: but you Know they're having some serious growing pains.

00:01:37: definitely I mean, look at what Eli Almo and Dean Arcearo were posting about.

00:01:42: They highlighted that Waymo is now completing five hundred thousand paid weekly rides across ten US cities.

00:01:48: Half

00:01:48: a million rides...a week

00:01:50: A week?

00:01:51: That's a tenfold jump from just two years ago.

00:01:54: It's.

00:01:54: you know driverless cars went for being this wild futuristic thing to take a selfie with a mundane line item on an expense report.

00:02:03: Right,

00:02:03: but the friction of scaling that fast is immense.

00:02:06: like you mentioned that car blasting through the construction zone That was actually part of a major incident that Sanjay Kumar and Natalie Lung broke down on LinkedIn

00:02:13: right?

00:02:14: The recall

00:02:15: exactly Waymo had to issue a recall for three thousand nine hundred vehicles because Of how the AI was making decisions.

00:02:22: I just i'm still trying to wrap my head around this Like How does it super advanced ai with all the lidar in radar just decide to drive through a construction site.

00:02:30: Well, it comes down to how the AI is trained to assess threats.

00:02:33: so The AI assigns mathematical weights to everything It sees.

00:02:37: moving cars are heavy metal right?

00:02:38: So they get a super high threat weight.

00:02:40: avoid at all costs.

00:02:42: Okay make sense you don't want to hit a car

00:02:44: exactly but static orange cones They're light plastic.

00:02:50: In a split second on the highway, The AI literally calculated that crashing through the construction zone was a safer lower penalty escape route than risking a swerve near moving traffic.

00:03:02: Let's unpack this because it sounds exactly like a teenager learning to drive.

00:03:05: Ooh!

00:03:05: That is good comparison.

00:03:06: Like

00:03:07: they know the strict rules of road right?

00:03:08: Stay away from them.

00:03:09: moving cars Yeah But completely lack the macro level common sense to realize.

00:03:16: hey This is a construction zone and normal rules have changed.

00:03:19: Yes

00:03:20: That's exactly it.

00:03:21: It's a massive context blind spot and really highlights that building trust with passengers is still this huge hurdle, which I love.

00:03:29: the insights from Julian Rodriguez & Mike Landau about Zooks.

00:03:33: Oh yeah!

00:03:33: Zook s new production intent RoboCaxi.

00:03:36: Right because ZookS isn't just trying to outscale Waymo right now they are actively trying design the feeling of autonomy like they want.

00:03:44: engineer away your anxiety

00:03:46: And The way their doing its so specific using aloe green and stone gray contrast interiors.

00:03:53: Yeah, why those colors specifically?

00:03:55: So you don't lose your phone.

00:03:57: think about it.

00:03:58: You know when you get out of an Uber at night And it has black leather seats and you have a mini panic attack because you can't see your dark phone.

00:04:05: Oh I hate that feeling!

00:04:07: You're just patting your pockets frantically.

00:04:09: Exactly the light grey seats mean your Black smartphone stands out instantly.

00:04:13: It literally lowers your cognitive load.

00:04:16: Plus, they have these fluted charging pads so you phone doesn't slide around on sharp turns.

00:04:21: and um... These upgraded touch screens to constantly reassure you.

00:04:25: it's brilliant.

00:04:25: But this focus on premium design is also leading to some well Some interesting new business models that we really need to watch.

00:04:31: You're talking about the loyalty program?

00:04:33: Yeah Brian Reimer and Sean O'Kane posted about Waymo premiere.

00:04:37: Its this twenty nine ninety-nine a month subscription.

00:04:40: you get priority pickups cash back

00:04:42: wait priority pick ups.

00:04:43: So if it's pouring rain and everyone wants a ride, I can just like pay thirty bucks or not to skip the line.

00:04:49: Essentially yes And we have to ask The Why It Matters question here.

00:04:53: Robotaxes were supposed to democratize transit right?

00:04:56: But If they become a premium tier service where you buy your way to the front of the line.

00:05:01: What does that mean for public mobility access?

00:05:03: are we just building an exclusive transit lane For people who can afford it?

00:05:06: That's a huge equity issue.

00:05:09: but You know delivering that kind of premium service at scale requires a massive physical operation behind the scenes.

00:05:15: Oh,

00:05:15: absolutely!

00:05:16: Which brings us to our second big theme The Unbundling of the Whole AV Ecosystem.

00:05:22: Timothy Papandreou had this great post where he pointed out that industry is splitting into four layers

00:05:27: Right...the vehicle metal, AI brains and ride hail demand and local operations.

00:05:31: Exactly And we're seeing this play-out live.

00:05:33: like Ben Hubbard and Athena Browning highlighted that massive Global Level IV partnership announced at the MOE twenty twenty six event.

00:05:41: You have Stellantis making the metal, Wave doing AI brains and Uber handling the demand network.

00:05:46: Unbundling in real time!

00:05:49: And Bill Pierce & David Zoya noted, Mobileye is doing something similar.

00:05:53: They're launching a one hundred vehicle fleet that scales to seventeen thousand using Move It for The Demand.

00:05:59: Its like

00:06:00: PC industry in the nineties where hardware software and apps all split up.

00:06:04: Yeah

00:06:04: but here's catch The real bottleneck right now, it isn't the AI anymore.

00:06:09: It's that fourth layer—the ground operation

00:06:11: and messy physical stuff.

00:06:13: Right

00:06:13: George Caligaro has pointed this out.

00:06:15: He warned that the twenty-twenty six FIFA World Cup is going to brutally stress test these AV fleets because you know vehicles have To be charged they have to be cleaned

00:06:24: Because people spill things obviously

00:06:25: Exactly And They Have To Be Staged At The Right Depots Before a Surge Even Hits.

00:06:29: That Is A Massive Logistics Problem Not A Software

00:06:32: Problem.

00:06:33: Speaking of logistics I feel like everyone is so obsessed with passenger robotexes that we are completely ignoring the hidden workhorses of society.

00:06:41: Oh, the commercial fleets!

00:06:43: Yes!

00:06:44: Paul Perron made this point... Do you know how many refuse trucks there were in the US?

00:06:47: A hundred and eighty thousand plus half a million school buses an eight-hundred fifty thousand forklifts.

00:06:53: That's incredible scale.

00:06:55: It's a half trillion dollar market.

00:06:57: You can't just scrap all of that overnight and replace them with brand new autonomous pods.

00:07:02: The economics are impossible.

00:07:04: We have to automate the existing fleets.

00:07:06: we have to retrofit them

00:07:07: which totally validates what Daniel Abram Marquis was posting about.

00:07:11: he shared some hard data out of China There already forty seven thousand commercial robovins on public roads there.

00:07:18: Wow, Just doing deliveries.

00:07:19: yeah companies like zealostech and neolix.

00:07:22: The beauty is there are no passengers to reassure.

00:07:26: No allogreen interiors needed, it's just packages filling a massive labor gap.

00:07:31: But okay if our streets were about to be filled with forty seven thousand autonomous delivery vans smart garbage trucks and premium robotexes?

00:07:38: How on earth do city planners manage that traffic?

00:07:41: It's

00:07:41: the ultimate smart-city dilemma.

00:07:43: And Nihar Arora highlighted this incredible study from Google Research, which kind of points to a solution...

00:07:48: Oh!

00:07:48: The rerouting study?

00:07:49: Yes.

00:07:50: So they found by dynamically re-routing just two percent of google map strips underutilized alternative paths.

00:07:56: They significantly reduced urban congestion across ten major US cities.

00:08:00: Wait wait…just two percent

00:08:01: Just two percent.

00:08:02: It's wild.

00:08:03: it solves this thing called a Nash equilibrium.

00:08:06: Basically, when everyone uses an app to find the absolute fastest route... ...the app sends every one to exact same highway.

00:08:14: Right and then a highway becomes parking lot?

00:08:16: Exactly!

00:08:17: Individually smart decisions create a collectively terrible outcome.

00:08:21: But if you just tweak two percent of cars to take slightly slower routes The whole system balances out and speeds up.

00:08:28: Okay here's where it gets really interesting for me but also scary.

00:08:32: If an app can control city traffic, like in air traffic controller who governs that data.

00:08:37: Like do we really trust tech companies to literally run our cities?

00:08:41: That is the exact tension Henry Lofton was talking about.

00:08:44: he pointed out that AI as a really just amplifier technology's easy part.

00:08:48: now

00:08:48: The hard part of this bureaucracy

00:08:50: Exactly governance cyber security getting these siloed City departments actually share data with each other.

00:08:56: if you have bad governance AI helps make decisions faster

00:09:00: Which means cities really need to focus on what they actually control, like the curb.

00:09:06: Brooks McKinney posted about Passport's curb management software — it is helping cities keep bus lanes clear and manage emergency routes.

00:09:13: Right, because curb management isn't just about parking anymore it's about flow.

00:09:17: Exactly and Emile Papps & David Reed made such a good point about this we dedicate so much of our public space to cars that sit idle twenty-three hours per day.

00:09:27: Reed pointed out reducing mandatory parking requirements is actually the key for unlocking housing development in cities like Boston or NYC.

00:09:34: It's the physical space we need And perfectly connects with our last major theme If you reduce parking You have offer alternative transport which is where micromobility is stepping in to fill those gaps.

00:09:45: Yes, and the micro-mobility sector has really grown up lately.

00:09:49: Lars Christian Grutum Olsen reported on Lyme's one point seven billion dollar IPO filing

00:09:54: Which is huge though they do have some debt to deal with.

00:09:57: True

00:09:58: but it shows real revenue And Maria Eugenia Romero Ducroc noted from that MME twenty twenty six event That operators are finally focusing on profitability like Maybe he hit profitability in just a hundred and twenty days.

00:10:12: No more just recklessly dumping scooters on sidewalks,

00:10:14: right?

00:10:15: But hitting those profit margins relies on high utilization And Paul Raminsky shared this crazy insight.

00:10:21: Sixty percent of shared mobility rides are lost simply because the vehicle is too far away when the demand forms

00:10:27: Ah yes The Disney trash can rule.

00:10:30: I loved this analogy.

00:10:31: explain that one it's so good.

00:10:33: So disney realized people will only walk A very specific distance to throw away trash.

00:10:39: If it's too far, they just litter.

00:10:40: It is the exact same psychology with e-bikes The bike isn't right in front of you.

00:10:44: when walking out a building You won't walk three blocks and get it!

00:10:47: You just hail or ride instead.

00:10:48: Convenience always wins Which why TripSolution is so smart.

00:10:52: They're using what we call physical AI To dynamically reposition E-Bikes toward demand before even happens.

00:10:57: So

00:10:58: bikes are moving where people will be

00:11:00: Exactly.

00:11:01: And when you remove those friction points, behavior actually changes.

00:11:04: Miko and Pooja posted about a UK study where suburban families were loaned e-cargo bikes...

00:11:09: Right!

00:11:10: They ended up replacing fifty percent of their car trips.

00:11:12: Fifty percent?

00:11:14: Just by having the bike easily available.

00:11:16: it proves that when you removed barriers human behaviour really does shift dramatically.

00:11:21: It's amazing.

00:11:22: Well before we wrap up what is our final provocative thought We can leave everyone with today.

00:11:26: Okay so mull this over.

00:11:29: I was reading posts from Chuanyu and Alex Vassilio about this company, PIX Moving.

00:11:35: We always talk about moving people faster from A to B but what if the future of mobility isn't?

00:11:41: Wait, what does

00:11:43: that mean?

00:11:43: An autonomous city.

00:11:44: Instead of you traveling across town to a coffee shop or store?

00:11:48: What if the physical spaces like retail real estate public services become dynamic and they actually route themselves To You?

00:11:55: The City just constantly reconfigures around human needs.

00:11:59: Oh wow

00:11:59: so the destination comes to the user.

00:12:01: That completely flips urban planning on its head.

00:12:03: It really

00:12:04: does something to think about.

00:12:05: Definitely Well.

00:12:06: If you enjoyed this episode new episodes drop every two weeks.

00:12:10: Also check out our other editions on electrification battery technology, next-gen vehicle intelligence and commercial fleet insights.

00:12:17: Thanks for listening everyone!

00:12:18: Yes a huge thank you to YOU for joining us on this deep dive.

00:12:23: don't forget hit subscribe.

00:12:24: we'll catch ya next time.