Best of LinkedIn: Autonomous & Mobility Markets CW 35/ 36

00:00:00: provided by Thomas Allgaier and Frennis, based on the most relevant LinkedIn posts about autonomous and mobility markets in calendar weeks thirty-five and thirty six.

00:00:08: Frennis supports tier one automotive suppliers with early stage market validation for their R&D efforts by combining secondary research direct OEM expert interviews and facilitated customer meetings.

00:00:20: you can find more info in the description right.

00:00:22: so welcome to The Deep Dive.

00:00:24: everyone

00:00:24: glad be here

00:00:25: today.

00:00:25: we are really just getting into the gritty reality of autonomous and mobility markets.

00:00:32: We're pulling all this straight from recent professional LinkedIn discussions?

00:00:35: Yeah,

00:00:36: we are skipping The Fluff today.

00:00:48: the maturing economics of micromobility, and that massive infrastructure squeeze that's hitting urban logistics right now.

00:00:55: So a lot to cover?

00:00:55: It is.

00:00:56: so let's just dive into our first theme autonomous vehicles in robotaxis.

00:01:00: The

00:01:00: reality of scaling them Right.

00:01:02: Yeah because we were definitely moving past.

00:01:05: you know the flashy vehicle reveals on stage.

00:01:08: Now we're hitting putting these fleets on the street.

00:01:12: Oh,

00:01:12: absolutely and Fade P actually had a great post about this.

00:01:16: regarding Tesla's cyber cab launch in Austin

00:01:19: right?

00:01:19: The one without the steering wheel

00:01:20: exactly.

00:01:21: it entered commercial service entirely Without a steering wheel or pedals.

00:01:25: but they're really crucial.

00:01:26: detail feed pointed out wasn't the car itself.

00:01:29: It was that literally within hours of this happening NHTSA And the DOT opened a federal safety investigation

00:01:36: Within

00:01:36: hours.

00:01:37: yeah ours because Tesla basically chose to self-certify their compliance with federal motor vehicle safety standards, they didn't seek a formal exemption.

00:01:47: Oh wow?

00:01:48: Yeah which is the route that Zooks took for example.

00:01:51: Zook's went through the whole formal process.

00:01:53: Okay

00:01:53: let's unpack this because you mean it's like building a completely radical new house design.

00:01:59: right yeah and just telling the city inspector You promise its up to code without actually pulling permit.

00:02:04: That's perfectly put it

00:02:05: Right.

00:02:07: Safety isn't just corporate claim It's a social contract with literally everyone

00:02:11: on the street.

00:02:11: It is and Mike Murphy had some really interesting insights on this too.

00:02:15: He emphasized that The real question we should be asking isn't even about the vehicles tech anymore.

00:02:20: No, no it's about the depot and the operations like when the shift is over.

00:02:25: Who cleans these things?

00:02:26: Where do they charge?

00:02:27: right because there's no driver to plug in.

00:02:30: exactly well

00:02:31: That actually connects perfectly what chase Ballinger was posting about.

00:02:33: he noted that Auto Yard Is building this neutral Multi-OEM Depot capacity.

00:02:39: They're starting in Nashville.

00:02:41: Oh really neutral depots?

00:02:42: Yeah,

00:02:42: so they handle different brands.

00:02:44: yeah But the crazy part is the power requirements.

00:02:48: these depots require like three to ten megawatts of power?

00:02:52: Wow!

00:02:53: Yeah And I have to manage all these vehicles without a single human repositioning them.

00:02:57: The cars just have to figure it out in a lot.

00:02:59: That is massive.

00:03:00: Ten megawatts, well it's basically industrial scale.

00:03:04: and Molly Ma actually highlighted the scale gap here too.

00:03:07: just looking at raw numbers She pointed out that Tesla has around four hundred twenty vehicles registered in Texas right now And includes forty-five of those cybercaps.

00:03:17: But then you look at Waymo in Texas alone and over four thousand nationwide.

00:03:25: Oh wow, so they are just way ahead on the actual operational footprint?

00:03:28: Yeah it's not even close right now.

00:03:30: Well speaking of Waymo's footprint let's pivot to Europe for a second.

00:03:33: yeah Athena Browning posted that Waymo is choosing Munich as its first EU market.

00:03:37: Interesting choice!

00:03:38: They're mapping I think she said seventeen districts And they are using a validation driver from now but their targeting commercial service by twenty-twenty seven.

00:03:46: Okay, but Daniel Abramarcase actually added a really critical caveat to that whole Munich situation.

00:03:52: Oh what's that?

00:03:53: Waymo still holds zero German permits.

00:03:56: Zero!

00:03:57: Absolutely none.

00:03:58: so mapping is one thing operating as a whole different legal battle.

00:04:02: and meanwhile over in London Steve Greenfield was pointing out that Uber & Wave have started supervised testing

00:04:08: In London.

00:04:09: That sounds incredibly difficult.

00:04:11: Yeah exactly On the city's notoriously complex medieval streets, you can just imagine the AI trying to handle that geometry compared to like Phoenix.

00:04:21: Yeah, Phoenix is straight lines.

00:04:23: London Is a maze right?

00:04:25: So if we connect this To The bigger picture You know Robo taxis aren't the only ones fighting for curb space and regulatory approval.

00:04:31: here not

00:04:32: at all.

00:04:32: This shared micromobility sector is really maturing And it's clashing with public infrastructure in entirely new ways.

00:04:39: yeah

00:04:39: That's huge shift.

00:04:40: Timo Miller introduced just the sheer scale of this market recently.

00:04:44: He noted that twenty-twenty five saw two hundred and thirty seven million shared micro mobility trips, two

00:04:50: hundred three seven million

00:04:52: yeah which is up five percent.

00:04:54: but The really wild part Is at seventy percent Of those rides were connecting users to public transit.

00:04:59: so it's basically becoming the default last mile infrastructure

00:05:02: exactly.

00:05:03: And hey by the way if you're finding these mobility insights valuable for your own work make sure You hit subscribe.

00:05:08: So don't miss our future deep dives.

00:05:10: Definitely do that.

00:05:11: And on the micro-mobility scale, Tobias Taupitz was talking about how the economics are fundamentally changing.

00:05:16: Oh so?

00:05:17: Well subscription revenue is growing on real solid fundamentals.

00:05:21: now it's not just VC Cash Burn anymore

00:05:23: right?

00:05:24: he highlighted that Europe's largest bike subscription business swap feces.

00:05:28: they actually hit ninety one point one million euros in revenue.

00:05:32: wait really Ninety-one million?

00:05:34: Yeah,

00:05:34: and they recently merged with dance.

00:05:36: So now They're combining a fleet of over seventy five thousand e-bikes across forty Five different cities.

00:05:42: that

00:05:42: is a massive consolidation.

00:05:44: But you know without many bikes on the street You run into real spatial conflicts.

00:05:48: Oh

00:05:48: big time.

00:05:49: Mark Fiegel's actually posted about this concept of cannibalization happening.

00:05:53: What does he mean by that?

00:05:54: well He used Como Italy, as an example.

00:05:57: They completely ban bicycles from parts of their historic center

00:06:00: to protect pedestrians.

00:06:01: I'm guessing

00:06:02: exactly but the result is that it pushes all those cyclists back out into motorized traffic.

00:06:08: You're cannibalizing one clean mode of transport because the street geometry's just broken

00:06:13: right?

00:06:13: That makes total sense.

00:06:14: But there are actually solutions popping up.

00:06:16: Toby Lou noted something really smart happening in London.

00:06:19: Oh yeah south work council basically capped a twenty minute e-bike ride at one pound seventy five.

00:06:25: Okay, why that specific number?

00:06:27: Because it perfectly matches the standard bus fare.

00:06:30: Oh wow!

00:06:31: That's smart.

00:06:31: Yeah They are integrating directly with transit pricing and they added three hundred fifty dedicated parking bays to handle The Clutter

00:06:40: Which is always the biggest complaint right?

00:06:42: Exactly And Thomas Broughton mentioned this company Spark Park in Oslo.

00:06:46: They're using physical infrastructure To verify parking compliance rather than just relying on GPS

00:06:53: because GPS always drifts, right?

00:06:55: Like you park it and the app thinks your in a river.

00:06:58: Exactly yeah.

00:06:59: so physical smart racks solve that.

00:07:01: That's fascinating.

00:07:02: but okay let me ask pointed question based on a post by Stevan Obligizer.

00:07:07: Sure, go for it!

00:07:08: So Paris just introduced this one hundred and thirty five euro fine for e-scooter riders if they don't have a helmet or reflective vest?

00:07:15: Is this genuinely about road safety or is it just a backdoor regulatory tactic to make the service so annoying that people just stop using

00:07:23: it?"?

00:07:24: Yeah well that perfectly highlights the constant friction we see between B to C user freedom Right.

00:07:31: It's like cities can't always just ban things outright, but if you make it incredibly tedious for the consumer to actually use this service The problem kind of solves itself.

00:07:40: from a city perspective You

00:07:42: just regulated out-of-existence.

00:07:43: Exactly!

00:07:44: This squeeze on physical street space isn't affecting people trying get work.

00:07:48: Its creating massive bottleneck For goods we order every single day.

00:07:52: Oh

00:07:53: urban logistics Yeah its hitting wall.

00:07:55: Boss von Dinhuvel introduced this jarring statistic from a Porsche consulting paper.

00:08:01: He said German parcel volumes are going to hit five point four billion by twenty thirty Five

00:08:05: point four billions, yeah

00:08:07: But at the same time Cities or capping delivery traffic like Hamburg is capping vans.

00:08:13: that forty-five percent Wow

00:08:15: so they just can't physically enter the city

00:08:17: Right.

00:08:17: And even if they increase the use of cargo bikes by four hundred percent, The paper estimates that thirty percent of parcels which is roughly two point two million a day They just will not fit in the delivery network.

00:08:29: Here's where it gets really interesting If thirty percent Of packages literally cannot be delivered By vans.

00:08:36: does e-commerce?

00:08:37: Just you know grind to a halt In these urban centers?

00:08:41: Well no because we are already seeing workarounds like

00:08:43: what

00:08:44: Josh Goldwitz noted that Amazon is already bypassing the vehicle network entirely in really dense Brooklyn neighborhoods.

00:08:50: Oh,

00:08:51: are they flying them?

00:08:52: No!

00:08:53: They're using box trucks to feed hand carts and then doing the final delivery completely on foot.

00:08:59: oh wow.

00:08:59: so they just park a massive truck on a corner And then walk the rest

00:09:02: exactly.

00:09:03: The density is so high That walking Is actually more efficient than trying To find parking for a van every block.

00:09:09: that makes total sense yeah But you have to right size the infrastructure For that at work.

00:09:13: Gabe Klein had a great point about this.

00:09:15: He noted that converting car lanes to bus and bike lanes doesn't actually increase congestion Really?

00:09:20: People always argue it does

00:09:22: Right, but he says urban travel speed is dictated by stop lights anyway not the number of lanes.

00:09:28: Oh!

00:09:28: That makes sense.

00:09:29: So reallocating lanes improves organized throughput.

00:09:34: You move more humans per signal cycle.

00:09:36: And

00:09:37: Russell King should have perfect examples.

00:09:39: Seoul's

00:09:39: two thousand

00:09:41: four bus reform.

00:09:42: Okay, they basically integrated fares Reorganized all the routes and built a hundred kilometers of bus lanes in just two years.

00:09:50: Two years.

00:09:51: that's incredibly fast for infrastructure

00:09:54: Yeah.

00:09:54: And by doing that They cut customer dissatisfaction down to thirteen percent and boosted ridership by fourteen percent Just by optimizing the geometry they already have.

00:10:04: it's all about geometry But sometimes you know You just have to look off the streets entirely.

00:10:08: yeah The streets are full.

00:10:09: Johan Bernow posted about this company Candela.

00:10:11: They have the T-twelve electric hydrofoil ferry in Stockholm and they just raised thirty million euros.

00:10:17: Hydrofoils that lifts out of water?

00:10:19: Exactly, because it flies above the water uses eighty percent less energy than a diesel ferry.

00:10:25: And here's the best part It cuts the wake by ninety five percent.

00:10:28: Oh wow, so it doesn't damage the shorelines or other boats?

00:10:32: Right.

00:10:33: It basically proves that when streets are fully saturated cities might just need to look at water for high speed transit.

00:10:38: Basically a blue highway right through city!

00:10:41: Exactly

00:10:42: Well.

00:10:42: if you enjoyed this episode new episodes drop every two weeks.

00:10:45: Also check out our other additions on charging and battery tech commercial fleets And SDV and AI defined Absolutely.

00:10:52: Thank You So Much For Joining Us On This Deep Dive Today And Again Don't Forget To Hit Subscribe.

00:10:57: Yeah, thanks for listening and you know I'll leave with one final thing to ponder.

00:11:01: With robo taxes aiming to run two hundred forty seven packages being delivered on foot from mobile micro hubs And shared e-bikes linking the final mile to transit will The traditional concept of parking a vehicle soon become an obsolete luxury at the past something To think about as you navigate your city this week?