Best of LinkedIn: Future Mobility & Market Evolution CW 43/ 44

00:00:00: Brought to you by Thomas Allgaier and Frennus, this edition highlights key LinkedIn posts on future mobility and market evolution in weeks forty-three and forty-four.

00:00:08: Frennus supports enterprises with market and competitive intelligence decoding disruptive technologies, customer needs, regulatory change, and competitive moves.

00:00:17: so product teams and strategy leaders don't just react but shape the future of mobility.

00:00:23: Welcome back to the Deem Dive.

00:00:25: Our goal today, well, it's to give you a really focused look at the sharpest thinking from the mobility world over the last couple of weeks.

00:00:31: We've sifted through curated LinkedIn content to pull out the really high value insights on what's actually moving strategically.

00:00:38: Yeah, it's definitely needed.

00:00:39: What we're seeing in the sources, especially from the weeks forty-three and forty-four, is that we're kind of past that early frothy phase.

00:00:46: The signals are pretty clear.

00:00:48: The industry is knuckling down on execution.

00:00:50: Execution meaning?

00:00:51: Meaning integrated systems, proven financial models, especially in shared mobility, and a big push on policy frameworks that actually work for market readiness, particularly in Europe actually.

00:01:01: Okay, let's start there then with the big picture.

00:01:04: We need to understand the scale of the opportunity because, well, that context explains a lot of the intensity we're seeing around policy.

00:01:11: Right.

00:01:11: And when you look at Europe, the numbers are just staggering.

00:01:15: Dr.

00:01:16: Andreas Neenhaus shared a forecast showing the European future mobility market potentially surging from about ninety two billion dollars this year.

00:01:23: Twenty twenty three, yeah.

00:01:24: Following

00:01:24: up to two hundred forty six billion dollars by twenty

00:01:27: thirty five.

00:01:27: Wow, okay.

00:01:28: That's almost a tripling in what just over a decade.

00:01:31: That certainly raises the stakes for every regulatory decision, every infrastructure debate.

00:01:35: But where's that growth coming from?

00:01:37: Is it just more EVs?

00:01:39: We're interestingly no.

00:01:40: Not just EVs.

00:01:41: that huge number confirms value is shifting fast away from the metal You know the vehicle itself and towards the code the software the services.

00:01:49: Okay, the two fastest growing bits EV charging services.

00:01:52: They're projected to hit something like thirty five billion dollars by twenty thirty five and eight s advanced driver assistance systems.

00:01:59: Right charging.

00:01:59: an eight s that really underscores the move towards recurring revenue doesn't it?

00:02:03: charging is like a utility.

00:02:05: eight s is upgradeable software

00:02:07: exactly the whole different ballgame for OEMs and suppliers.

00:02:11: Moving from that old CapEx model to, well, a service-based OPEX approach.

00:02:16: But getting to that two hundred and forty-six billion dollars, that needs serious coordination.

00:02:22: Politically.

00:02:23: Strategically.

00:02:24: Both.

00:02:25: Tomaskebore made a strong point about this.

00:02:27: Europe's future isn't just about isolated projects.

00:02:30: It really hinges on, you know, coordinated policy across electrification, shared mobility, digital integration, all of it together.

00:02:37: And he

00:02:37: used some pretty strong language, didn't he?

00:02:39: Something about wartime urgency to cut through the usual red tape.

00:02:42: He did.

00:02:43: Which highlights the challenge, right?

00:02:44: Getting twenty-seven nations aligned on standards quickly.

00:02:48: That's tough.

00:02:48: A huge lift, yeah.

00:02:49: Which

00:02:49: is probably why we're seeing cities kind of taking the lead, trying things out.

00:02:53: Santa Tilaquine and Flight, a really interesting example.

00:02:55: Cities moving away from those old school single-vendor parking tenders.

00:02:59: Ah, where one company gets all the parking spots, basically runs the show.

00:03:03: Precisely

00:03:03: that.

00:03:04: Now, cities are trying out this open market model.

00:03:06: They set the rules, data standards, payment integration, quality, but then multiple providers can compete.

00:03:12: Smart.

00:03:13: So the city keeps control of the goal, but uses competition to drive innovation.

00:03:17: Exactly.

00:03:18: And it's designed specifically to speed up digital collaboration around parking, payments, data, all the stuff that feeds into Moz.

00:03:26: Mobility is a service.

00:03:28: And we're seeing that flow into procurement too, like Amsterdam.

00:03:31: Yeah.

00:03:32: J. Smith noted Amsterdam's moving ahead with a smart mobility hub tender.

00:03:36: They're not just buying parking spaces or vehicles anymore.

00:03:40: They're procuring multimodal capacity, deep service integration.

00:03:44: It's almost like they're buying a place-making service that connects different transport systems.

00:03:47: Okay,

00:03:48: that's a perfect lead-in to shared mobility itself.

00:03:51: Let's talk micromobility.

00:03:53: For years, it felt a bit like, well... a VC-funded experiment burning cash.

00:03:58: But the recent post suggests maybe it's hitting financial maturity.

00:04:01: The signs are definitely there.

00:04:02: It's quite striking, actually.

00:04:03: Frida Khan reported that Voi hit EBIT profitability in Q-three.

00:04:07: Profitability,

00:04:08: really?

00:04:08: Yeah,

00:04:08: profitable, with net revenue growth up thirty-four percent year-over-year, generating I think it was twenty million euros in operating cash flow.

00:04:15: It's a real inflection point.

00:04:17: It

00:04:17: really is.

00:04:17: When a big player goes from just surviving to actually making money operationally, it changes how investors look at the whole sector.

00:04:24: And you can see that shift.

00:04:26: Craven, Joel Jones, and Alan Price both flagged major funding news.

00:04:30: Thoughts secured, what, eighty-five million?

00:04:33: And Voi got a valuation markup of seven percent.

00:04:35: a markup.

00:04:36: That's the key signal, isn't it?

00:04:38: As Jones pointed out, when investors start increasing valuations instead of writing them down, it suggests the industry is climbing out of that trough.

00:04:45: Definitely feels like it.

00:04:47: And that scale is also turning into real public utility, which you need for long term acceptance.

00:04:53: Paris is a great example, shared by Alex Pasekianics and Julian Chemisey.

00:04:57: What's happening in Paris?

00:04:59: Well, shared e-bike prices are getting really close to the cost of taking the metro.

00:05:03: Voi had this intro price, two point ninety nine for thirty minutes.

00:05:06: For a lot of trips that makes the bike faster, cheaper than public transport.

00:05:10: That's a game changer for commuters.

00:05:11: Absolutely.

00:05:12: And Chamoisie added that Paris saw over eight million shared rides in September.

00:05:16: twenty twenty five alone across all the operators.

00:05:19: That's massive adoption.

00:05:21: It really reframes it, doesn't it, from micro mobility is a fun extra to micro mobility is actually rational, efficient transport.

00:05:29: But.

00:05:30: Amongst all this success, there was a critical voice too, Ulrich Jensen.

00:05:35: He suggested we should maybe stop saying micromobility and start saying light.

00:05:40: mobility.

00:05:41: Yeah, that was interesting.

00:05:41: His focus was really on the hardware, the bikes themselves.

00:05:45: He was criticizing this trend towards really heavy e-bikes, you know, thirty, forty kilograms, almost like mopeds with pedals.

00:05:51: You see them around, they look pretty chunky.

00:05:53: Exactly.

00:05:54: And Jensen argues these heavy bikes kind of missed the point of the movement, which should be about light human scale efficient designs.

00:06:01: And crucially, these heavier bikes raise new safety issues on paths meant for bicycles.

00:06:06: Designing for efficiency and safety, not just adding a motor to something heavy, which connects to another issue, a big barrier Johannes Fiegenbaum highlighted, the policy gap.

00:06:15: Right, the eCargo bike trial.

00:06:16: Yeah, in the UK, should eCargo bikes could replace half of car trips for certain uses, huge potential.

00:06:22: But adoption is stuck.

00:06:24: Policy issues, mainly the high upfront cost and worries about

00:06:27: theft.

00:06:29: There just aren't good support mechanisms yet.

00:06:32: So the tech works, people would use it, but the practicalities, the cost, the risk, stop it from scaling.

00:06:38: Pretty much.

00:06:38: So how do you fix that if policy is slow?

00:06:41: Alexandra Lanick shared a really neat example from Morocco.

00:06:44: What are they doing?

00:06:45: Stellantis, Morocco partnered with Al Barid Bank.

00:06:48: Basically, the bank offers financing covering up to eighty percent of the vehicle cost for entrepreneurs using these micro vehicles.

00:06:55: Ah, so bringing the manufacturer and the finance provider together to solve the user's capital problem.

00:07:00: Exactly.

00:07:01: A smart collaborative workaround when policy lags behind.

00:07:04: Okay, let's shift gears again.

00:07:06: Autonomous vehicles, AVs.

00:07:08: What's the latest thinking there?

00:07:10: Seems like the strategy is evolving.

00:07:12: Yeah, definitely a pivot happening.

00:07:13: Moving away from just, you know, buying sensors and software towards much more vertical control.

00:07:18: Sounds

00:07:18: like Uber's strategy that Daniel Bromorque's detailed.

00:07:21: Precisely.

00:07:22: Uber's setting this incredibly aggressive target.

00:07:25: A hundred thousand vehicle autonomous fleet all powered by NVIDIA.

00:07:29: A hundred thousand.

00:07:30: Wow.

00:07:31: And the key thing is the approach.

00:07:32: They're aiming for ownership and control.

00:07:35: Standardizing on platforms like NVIDIA's Hyperion X, working closely with OEMs like Stellantis, it's a major strategic shift.

00:07:43: From being just the network platform to actually controlling the vehicle supply, that's a big change for them.

00:07:49: It really is.

00:07:50: It suggests they now see standardized, reliable, autonomous supply as the main bottleneck.

00:07:57: Maybe more than just user demand.

00:07:59: The competition might be shifting to who can source and maintain the biggest, most efficient standardized fleet.

00:08:04: Makes sense.

00:08:05: But this progress isn't like flipping a switch, is it?

00:08:07: Dustin Friedel had that great analogy.

00:08:09: The scare case analogy.

00:08:10: Yeah.

00:08:10: Reminding us that autonomy develops step by step across different areas.

00:08:14: Robo taxes, trucking, last mile delivery bots.

00:08:17: It's not one single hockey stick breakthrough.

00:08:20: Yeah,

00:08:20: that staircase idea is so important for managing expectations.

00:08:23: Each step up save from L three hands off to L four limited geofence.

00:08:27: autonomy needs huge investment.

00:08:29: Tons of testing, specific learning for that domain.

00:08:31: It's gradual.

00:08:33: It's expensive.

00:08:34: And just scaling these fleets throws up new practical challenges people might not think about.

00:08:39: Like, where do a hundred thousand robo taxes go to charge?

00:08:43: Warren

00:08:43: McDonnell dug into this.

00:08:45: As these fleets scale, charging won't just happen at random public stations.

00:08:49: It's going to shift heavily towards managed, dedicated fleet depots.

00:08:53: For efficiency.

00:08:54: Totally.

00:08:54: Yeah.

00:08:55: It's about optimizing utilization, minimizing downtime, scheduling vehicles precisely, charging becomes a core logistics function, not just plugging in when convenient.

00:09:04: And then there's the human element, trust.

00:09:06: Ulrich Buckinley pointed out that something like seventy percent of drivers are already uneasy about sharing their own private cars, worries about hygiene, condition, data privacy.

00:09:15: Right.

00:09:15: And that's just sharing with other humans.

00:09:18: Now imagine a shared autonomous vehicle.

00:09:20: Buck and Lai argued the real missing piece for shared AVs might not be smarter AI, but automated maintenance.

00:09:26: Systems that can clean the car, recharge it, check it over reliably between users.

00:09:31: Exactly.

00:09:32: You can't build trust if the car feels grubby or isn't ready when you need it.

00:09:36: Self-maintenance becomes crucial.

00:09:37: That whole challenge seems to feed into why Europe is taking a more cautious path, maybe.

00:09:42: compared to the rapid scaling we see from Weimo in the U.S.

00:09:45: or Baidu in China.

00:09:47: I think so.

00:09:47: Lupus Nackerman and Mihai Churka both emphasize this.

00:09:50: Europe seems to be prioritizing a slower rollout, focused on shared autonomous shuttles integrated with existing public transit, rather than just flooding streets with free-floating robotaxes.

00:10:02: So viewing AVs as part of the broader public transport system.

00:10:05: Yeah,

00:10:05: the consensus in European studies seems to be that the big societal benefits, left congestion, cleaner air, only really happen if these AV fleets are shared, electric, and ideally have rules about occupancy.

00:10:17: It's about integrated capacity, not just a driverless taxi service.

00:10:21: Which brings us neatly to that integration piece.

00:10:24: If all these different modes, electric, autonomous, micro, or maturing, it all depends on how the physical bits and the digital bits connect.

00:10:30: We talk a lot about MOS.

00:10:32: Where's the real value seen in MOS development?

00:10:34: Overwhelmingly digital.

00:10:36: Oliver Wyman forecast that digital services supporting mobility could explode from around forty two billion dollars today to wait for it.

00:10:43: six hundred and ten billion dollars by twenty thirty five

00:10:45: six hundred billion.

00:10:46: okay but making mods actually work.

00:10:50: it hinges on

00:10:52: interoperability.

00:10:53: simple as that.

00:10:54: if the systems don't talk to each other smoothly it falls apart.

00:10:57: and what makes that interoperability happen?

00:10:59: what are the levers?

00:11:00: things

00:11:00: like open api so different services can connect.

00:11:03: Account-based ticketing, so you have one account for everything.

00:11:06: System-wide farecapping, so you never pay more than a daily or weekly maximum, no matter how many modes you use.

00:11:13: Makes sense.

00:11:14: Takes the friction out for the user.

00:11:15: Absolutely.

00:11:16: That's what drives the behavior change away from private cars.

00:11:19: But, and this is critical, public transport has to be the reliable backbone of any maw system.

00:11:26: If the trains and buses aren't good, the whole digital layer on top doesn't matter

00:11:30: much.

00:11:30: Right, got it.

00:11:31: So that's the digital side.

00:11:32: What about the physical integration points, these mobility hubs we see appearing?

00:11:36: What makes one work well versus just being, you know, a sad corner with some chargers?

00:11:41: Lars Christian Grittimolson made a really key point here.

00:11:43: Hubs fail when they're just built for vehicles.

00:11:46: A collection of chargers and scooters stuck somewhere inconvenient.

00:11:50: Functional, but not appealing.

00:11:52: Exactly.

00:11:52: They succeed when they're integrated into places people already go, near supermarkets, cafes, maybe some green space.

00:11:59: They need to feel like part of the community fabric, designed for people first, vehicles second.

00:12:05: micro-ecosystems basically.

00:12:07: Making them desirable places, not just necessary ones.

00:12:10: And how you communicate?

00:12:11: that matters too, right?

00:12:12: The branding.

00:12:13: Hugely important.

00:12:14: Rob and Tyne highlighted how consistency builds understanding.

00:12:18: Like in Berlin, their gelby hubs use the exact same name and bright yellow branding as the main public transport app, BVG.

00:12:26: Ah,

00:12:27: so you instantly know this is part of the system.

00:12:29: Precisely.

00:12:30: That visual link creates an invisible bridge.

00:12:33: It tells the user this connects, this works together.

00:12:36: You can trust it.

00:12:36: Okay, and my favorite integration detail I saw mentioned from David McCall was about London's Summers Town.

00:12:43: They're doing something with rain gardens.

00:12:44: Yeah, it's brilliant.

00:12:45: They're not just putting in sustainable drainage.

00:12:47: They're physically designing and aligning these rain gardens with pedestrian walkways, bike storage locations, and transit stops.

00:12:55: So the green infrastructure actively supports the mobility function.

00:12:58: Exactly.

00:12:59: It's blending sustainability, stormwater management, better public space, and transit access all into one thoughtful design.

00:13:07: It elevates the hub from just infrastructure to a genuinely positive neighborhood amenity.

00:13:12: If you enjoyed this episode, new episodes drop every two weeks.

00:13:16: Also check out our other editions on electrification and battery technology, next-gen vehicle intelligence, and commercial fleet insights.

00:13:23: You know, looking at all these pieces together, the policy urgency, micromobility finding its financial feed, the AV strategy shifts, the absolute necessity of digital and physical integration, it really shows the future of mobility isn't about waiting for some single magic bullet technology.

00:13:39: It's about the hard, often complex work of integration, connecting policy, technology, infrastructure, and crucially, user behavior.

00:13:47: Understanding how all those trends intersect is Well, it's essential if you want to move from just reacting to the future to actually helping shape it.

00:13:55: Couldn't agree more.

00:13:56: A great point to end on.

00:13:57: Thank you for joining us on this deep dive and remember to subscribe for more insights.

00:14:00: We'll catch you next time.