Best of LinkedIn: Future Mobility & Market Evolution CW 45/ 46

00:00:00: Brought to you by Thomas Allgaier and Frennis, this edition highlights key LinkedIn posts on future mobility and market evolution in weeks forty-five and forty-six.

00:00:09: Frennis supports enterprises with market and competitive intelligence, decoding disruptive technologies, customer needs, regulatory change, and competitive moves, so product teams and strategy leaders don't just react, but shape the future of mobility.

00:00:24: Welcome to this deep dive, which is focused entirely on next-gen vehicles and mobility.

00:00:29: And if you're a strategy leader in this space, well, the sources this week are pretty clear.

00:00:33: Absolutely.

00:00:34: The market has, I think, officially graduated from just trials.

00:00:38: The real takeaway here is a sprint towards scalable system level solutions.

00:00:43: And that's across the board.

00:00:44: Yeah, whether we're talking about robotexes, shared micro-mobility, or even how cities are just fundamentally rethinking their policies to, you know, try and catch up.

00:00:51: Okay, so our mission today is to distill the top insights from calendar weeks forty-five and forty-six.

00:00:57: We've clustered the content into a few key themes so you can quickly grasp what is really essential, strategically speaking.

00:01:04: And where the big waves of investment and policy are headed.

00:01:07: It's exactly.

00:01:08: We have a lot to cover, so let's unpack this immediately.

00:01:11: I think we have to start with the area that generates the biggest headlines.

00:01:15: Autonomous mobility.

00:01:16: For sure.

00:01:17: And we're definitely past the stage where we debate if economy is technically possible.

00:01:23: Now, it's pretty much a purely economic and regulatory discussion.

00:01:27: Right.

00:01:27: Daniel Niederberger noted this perfectly.

00:01:29: He pointed out that robotexes are transitioning really rapidly from pure R&D trials to genuine a potential profit pools.

00:01:38: And that forces everyone's hand.

00:01:40: It immediately forces every player, OEMs, platform developers, cities to decide where they're placing their bets.

00:01:47: And the competitive heat is just.

00:01:49: It's intense.

00:01:50: It seems to be defined globally by two factors, scale and cost.

00:01:54: Absolutely.

00:01:55: Aaron Prather highlighted that the sources show Chinese companies are really setting global expectations.

00:02:01: You know, you look at Baidu and Weeride.

00:02:03: It's already operating.

00:02:04: They're

00:02:04: already operating fully driverless commercial services at a substantial scale.

00:02:07: And they're backed by lower hardware costs and frankly faster manufacturing cycles that the West is struggling to match.

00:02:14: And that scale advantage, it translates directly into pricing disruption.

00:02:19: I saw the data Ali Elanizi shared.

00:02:21: The comparison in Austin, Texas.

00:02:22: Yeah, where a Tesla Robo taxi ride was priced five times cheaper than a comparable Uber

00:02:27: X. Five times cheaper.

00:02:29: I mean, if those economics prove sustainable beyond this initial phase, the ripple effects are enormous.

00:02:35: You're not just disrupting ride hailing.

00:02:36: No, not at all.

00:02:37: You're fundamentally challenging the viability of public transit funding, which, you know, relies so heavily on ridership.

00:02:44: And you're changing consumer expectations for what transportation should even cost.

00:02:49: Precisely.

00:02:50: If that price point holds, product teams across the whole sector really need to assume that, well... Privately owned cars for daily commuting might become a pretty niche concept in urban centers.

00:03:00: But that aggressive scaling creates a huge geographical divide, right?

00:03:04: Yeah.

00:03:05: Specifically with Europe.

00:03:06: It does.

00:03:06: Sven Weichner notes that the viability of these services requires serious scale.

00:03:11: We're talking fleets in the hundreds of vehicles.

00:03:13: And Europe can't just wait around.

00:03:15: Right.

00:03:15: Europe can't afford to just wait for US or Chinese companies to come knocking on the door with fully mature solutions.

00:03:22: We risk becoming a regulatory laggard, not a market leader.

00:03:27: So that brings us to this sort of European paradox.

00:03:29: It does.

00:03:30: Christian Bonn-Martinson argues a city like Copenhagen, you know, with its compact, well-mapped infrastructure, it's kind of ideal to become Europe's test track.

00:03:38: But the regulation isn't there.

00:03:39: Exactly.

00:03:40: The regulatory framework needs a fundamental shift from viewing autonomy as this disruptive threat to seeing it as an infrastructure opportunity.

00:03:50: But, you know, not every European city is aiming for that kind of rapid disruption.

00:03:55: I saw Guillermo Campolmore noted that initiatives like Berlin's autonomous shuttle pilot.

00:03:59: The nine point five million one.

00:04:01: That's the one.

00:04:02: They're prioritizing careful slow testing within existing public transport frameworks.

00:04:07: Their goal is explicitly.

00:04:09: to complement traditional transit.

00:04:10: To complement not replace.

00:04:12: Which

00:04:12: is a far cry from the aggressive disruptive approach we're seeing out of, say, Shenzhen or Phoenix.

00:04:17: And that cautious approach is, I guess, understandable when you look at the major operational warnings coming out of the U.S.

00:04:23: market.

00:04:24: David Zipper highlighted a really serious concern that city planners are wrestling with.

00:04:29: Which is what happens when these things actually scale up fast.

00:04:31: Yeah.

00:04:33: He warned that a ten X or a hundred X scale could turn urban streets into a. what did he call it a?

00:04:40: Congested chaotic mess

00:04:42: and he has the data to back that up.

00:04:44: he does.

00:04:44: Robo taxes right now spend about half their time deadheading just

00:04:47: driving around empty repositioning right

00:04:50: and on top of that the sheer pleasantness of a cheap easy Autonomous ride might actually induce more trips overall pulling people away from transit.

00:04:59: So that's the critical question isn't it?

00:05:01: Does the efficiency you gain from autonomy outweigh the congestion you get from deadheading?

00:05:06: more trips.

00:05:07: It is.

00:05:08: And Zipper suggests that regardless of how that balance plays out, cities have to

00:05:12: act now.

00:05:12: Before the scale really hits.

00:05:14: So what does that action look like specifically?

00:05:15: It's policy and digital infrastructure.

00:05:17: He recommends using automatic enforcement to penalize AVs for traffic violations.

00:05:22: Like double parking.

00:05:23: Like double parking.

00:05:25: And

00:05:25: creating digital maps of curb space for safer pickups and adopting congestion pricing, basically strategies that manage demand.

00:05:33: And what's smart about that is that these policies benefit this city right away, whether AV scale up or not.

00:05:38: Exactly.

00:05:39: They're just good urban planning practices.

00:05:41: Absolutely.

00:05:42: Okay, so moving from four wheels to fewer, that congestion problem leads us very nicely into our next theme, micromobility.

00:05:50: Theme two.

00:05:51: And this has really transitioned, I think, from being just a fun niche option to being framed as a core urban utility.

00:05:59: For solving that last mile problem.

00:06:01: Mitch Merker calls the rise of compact EVs, you know, e-bikes, trikes, that sort of thing, a necessary correction.

00:06:07: A correction to what?

00:06:08: We currently use these oversized two-ton vehicles for short solo trips.

00:06:12: It's just wildly inefficient.

00:06:14: So this is about matching the vehicle size to the trip purpose.

00:06:17: And we are seeing some fantastic innovation in that gap between the car and the bike.

00:06:22: Ethan Lang showcased the Fricker.

00:06:24: Oh, the four-wheeled e-bike?

00:06:25: The fully enclosed four-wheeled e-bike.

00:06:28: It still uses bike paths, which is key, but it offers weather protection and a hundred and sixty liters of storage.

00:06:34: That storage capacity is the game changer.

00:06:36: That's what makes it a real utility replacement for a car on a quick grocery run, not just a weekend toy.

00:06:42: And the industry is maturing.

00:06:44: The evidence isn't just in the product specs, it's in the finances.

00:06:48: Kirsten Heinecky shared a major milestone.

00:06:50: Well,

00:06:51: post-merger with tier.

00:06:52: Right.

00:06:53: They achieved EBITDA profitability and successfully raised eighty five million.

00:06:57: That's a huge signal for investors.

00:06:59: A few years ago, everyone was so skeptical about shared mobility's unit economics.

00:07:04: And just for context, right?

00:07:05: Achieving EBITDA profitability means the company is covering its daily operating expenses.

00:07:10: Maintenance, staffing, running the fleet.

00:07:12: Before

00:07:13: the big capital costs.

00:07:14: Exactly.

00:07:15: It proves the model works sustainably day to day.

00:07:17: But that shift still requires massive regulatory and infrastructure support.

00:07:21: Wasim Rahal emphasized that in high growth places like the GCC cities, infrastructure-dedicated lanes safe crossing's designated parking, it all has to be planned before the regulation.

00:07:31: You need the physical space before you can govern its use.

00:07:34: Precisely.

00:07:35: I found a really sharp contrast to that in the U.S.

00:07:38: market, which highlights regulatory instability.

00:07:41: Prében Joel Jones noted that frequent, unpredictable tariff changes are a major setback.

00:07:47: For companies like Rad Powerbite.

00:07:48: Yeah.

00:07:49: I mean, when you're operating on thin margins, instability in import tariffs makes it almost impossible to price products with confidence.

00:07:57: You either absorb the cost or you forfeit inventory.

00:08:00: And that

00:08:00: just kills scalability.

00:08:01: Right.

00:08:02: But we are seeing cities trying to be proactive about this using smart planning.

00:08:06: Edward Forrester shared a concept of using new, clearly painted parking spots for micro mobility.

00:08:11: Specifically at metro stations.

00:08:13: Yeah, which is a subtle but really effective policy tool.

00:08:16: It's an intentional nudge.

00:08:18: You

00:08:18: make the sustainable option the most convenient one.

00:08:20: And

00:08:21: the data actually validates this.

00:08:23: Alisa Fampour's analysis of micromobility data in Austin and Chicago, it reinforces that crucial last mile role.

00:08:31: What did the Chicago data show?

00:08:33: It showed that the majority of shared mobility trips began or ended right near major train stations.

00:08:38: So the system is working exactly as it's designed to.

00:08:41: Exactly.

00:08:42: OK, moving into our final theme.

00:08:44: Market forces.

00:08:46: resilience and rethinking urban space.

00:08:49: And I think the mindset shift for investors is arguably the most crucial change we've seen.

00:08:53: I agree.

00:08:54: Sergio Diaz reports that the investment narrative is kind of moving away from just chasing climate

00:08:58: tech hype.

00:08:59: The single unicorn.

00:09:00: Yeah, that hope for one massive winner.

00:09:02: It's moving toward disciplined investment in systemic resilience, inefficiency and well-being.

00:09:08: Investors now want to scale many proven winners, not just bet the farm on one high-risk solution.

00:09:14: And part of that systemic resilience includes, well, utilizing the third dimension,

00:09:19: the air.

00:09:20: Advanced Air Mobility, or AAM, Rana Zakharinova confirmed a major milestone here.

00:09:26: Joby.

00:09:26: Aviation's progress with Dubai's air taxi system is getting close to its final FAA certification

00:09:32: steps.

00:09:33: With a commercial launch planned for twenty twenty six.

00:09:35: Right.

00:09:35: And that signals that AM isn't just a concept anymore.

00:09:38: It's entering regulated infrastructure backed planning cycles.

00:09:42: When the FAA gets involved, it means the conversation is about scaling safely, not just tech demos.

00:09:46: And while air taxis are taking to the skies, we have to talk about the massive amount of valuable land on the ground that's just devoted to parks cars.

00:09:55: Lars Christian Grudemulsen points out that underpriced parking is basically an invisible subsidy.

00:10:01: And one that dramatically distorts land use and our mobility choices.

00:10:05: The numbers are just staggering.

00:10:06: In Brussels, for example, the hidden subsidy is estimated to be close to a hundred million a year.

00:10:12: That's a hundred million not spent on better public transit or bike lanes or housing.

00:10:18: Strategy leaders really need to recognize that transparent parking pricing isn't just a fee.

00:10:23: It's a critical tool for improving mobility and reclaiming urban space.

00:10:27: Which dovetails perfectly with this idea of circular cities that Herald Friedel champions.

00:10:31: He argues we have to move beyond just cosmetic greening of parking lots.

00:10:35: What does he suggest?

00:10:36: Cities should be aggressively repurposing that land into higher value uses.

00:10:41: Mixed use hubs, urban logistics bases for last mile delivery.

00:10:44: Or even localized energy assets.

00:10:46: The parking lot is just fundamentally underutilized real estate.

00:10:50: And technology is finally providing the tools to manage this complexity.

00:10:54: Ben Burgess shared a really fascinating proof of concept.

00:10:58: Integrating ASUMO traffic simulations with ART-GIS.

00:11:01: For dynamic three-D traffic modeling, it creates a true digital twin environment.

00:11:07: So for those who don't know, ASUMO is a well-known microscopic traffic simulation package.

00:11:12: Integrating it with ART-GIS means planners can now instantly watch vehicles reroute in a dynamic three-D model.

00:11:18: based on changing conditions like construction or even flooding.

00:11:22: It's predictive resilience in action.

00:11:24: And it enables cities to respond in, you know, near real time.

00:11:28: That brings us to a final, and I think profound, Point about the language we use, which was shared by Brioge and Sanchez.

00:11:35: Right.

00:11:35: That terminology often reflects a car-oriented perspective, the concept of motor normativity.

00:11:40: It's a strategic argument.

00:11:42: Why do we call people vulnerable road users?

00:11:44: It implies they are inherently fraggle, or maybe even at fault, rather than just acknowledging their right to be there.

00:11:50: So Sanchez suggests shifting the language to something more empowering, like people on the move.

00:11:55: And this isn't just semantics.

00:11:56: It really changes how planners and the public view non-car travel.

00:12:01: It validates walking and cycling and scooting as just fundamental human activities.

00:12:07: If you enjoyed this deep dive, new additions drop every two weeks.

00:12:11: Also check out our other additions on electrification and battery technology, next-gen vehicle intelligence, and commercial fleet insights.

00:12:19: This survey of the last two weeks really reveals that the mobility industry is scaling solutions rapidly.

00:12:24: It's moving past the proof-of-concept stage across the board, robotaxes, AAM, micromobility.

00:12:30: But the fundamental challenge is systemic.

00:12:32: It is.

00:12:33: It's about integrating these new modes into legacy infrastructure and city planning, but without repeating the congestion mistakes of the last hundred years.

00:12:41: I want to leave you with this thought.

00:12:42: Arthur Volnicka showed how ancient Roman roads, which were built for very specific military needs, still define modern European economic development and urbanization today.

00:12:52: So if the mobility networks we design and regulate right now are the foundations for the next two thousand years of the city, what structural infrastructure decisions are we making today that will define that future?

00:13:04: Thank you for joining us for this deep dive.

00:13:06: Make sure you subscribe to stay informed.