Best of LinkedIn: Future Mobility & Market Evolution CW 49/ 50

00:00:00: brought to you by Thomas Allgaier and Frennus.

00:00:02: This edition highlights key LinkedIn posts on future mobility and market evolution in weeks forty nine and fifty.

00:00:09: Frennus supports enterprises with market and competitive intelligence decoding disruptive technologies, customer needs, regulatory change and competitive moves.

00:00:18: So product teams and strategy leaders don't just react but shape the future of mobility.

00:00:24: Welcome to our deep dive.

00:00:25: You know, looking at the mobility discussions over the last couple of weeks, there was a really distinct shift.

00:00:30: Yeah,

00:00:30: what did you see?

00:00:31: Well, there is less buzz about, let's say, pure futuristic tech and much more focus on pragmatic progress.

00:00:38: Right.

00:00:38: Specifically how policy, governance, and infrastructure are shaping market viability, like, right now.

00:00:44: That's the core finding, isn't it?

00:00:46: We saw these major shifts in corporate strategies, some really sharp policy warnings in shared mobility, and a clearer picture emerging of where autonomous systems are actually finding some success.

00:00:57: So our mission today is to dig into those most crucial strategic nuggets for anyone navigating this space.

00:01:03: And I think we have to start with the necessary cautionary tale from the shared economy.

00:01:07: The state of shared mobility, yeah.

00:01:09: It provides maybe the clearest lesson on market success.

00:01:13: or failure, policy alignment is clearly the biggest lever here.

00:01:17: And the headline was Zipcar, right?

00:01:18: The biggest headline, absolutely.

00:01:20: Zipcar's decision to exit the UK market after nearly two decades.

00:01:24: Twenty

00:01:24: years, wow.

00:01:26: When a pioneer like that pulls out, it just sounds like a fundamental business failure.

00:01:30: It sounds like it, but the conversation suggests the failure isn't with the business model itself, it's really with the regulatory environment.

00:01:37: Okay,

00:01:37: so how did that play out?

00:01:38: Well,

00:01:38: Sandra Phillips detailed this perfectly.

00:01:41: She pointed out that London operates within one of the world's most complex regulatory environments.

00:01:46: Different

00:01:47: rules for every borough, I've

00:01:48: heard.

00:01:48: Exactly.

00:01:49: But the real hammer blow was the decision not to exempt most car club vehicles from the congestion charge.

00:01:55: That feels like a crushing financial decision.

00:01:59: If the whole point is to reduce congestion, why would policy actively penalize the shared option?

00:02:06: It's a perfect example of conflicting incentives.

00:02:08: Russell King really highlighted this.

00:02:10: He said, the core mistake was charging shared vehicles multiple times more than residents for parking.

00:02:16: So you're breaking the unit economics.

00:02:18: You're breaking them entirely.

00:02:20: When you force shared vehicles to carry those disproportionately high costs, the financial incentive for the operator and then for the user, it just collapses.

00:02:28: Right.

00:02:29: And that failure means London's shared car rate is going to drop, which really hurts the overall mode shift the city needs.

00:02:36: That policy paralysis is just.

00:02:38: It's really eye-opening.

00:02:39: It shows even the best tech can be torpedoed by misaligned rules.

00:02:42: Precisely.

00:02:43: And this is why commentators are pushing for systemic change.

00:02:46: Simon Swan, for instance, he laid out some potential interventions.

00:02:49: Liquid.

00:02:50: Things like treating car share as an essential public service, or even mandating developers include car share spaces and new parking structures.

00:02:58: You know, bake it in from the start.

00:02:59: So while the story in London is grim... We shouldn't think shared mobility is doomed everywhere.

00:03:04: No, not at all.

00:03:05: Hashim Al-Fatiharji highlighted a very different growth picture in places like Saudi Arabia.

00:03:11: Globally, users are projected to more than double by twenty twenty seven.

00:03:15: So the market is healthy where the policy is supportive.

00:03:18: And it's not just about policy, but also inclusion.

00:03:21: Yes,

00:03:22: and that was a critical point.

00:03:23: The small co-creation guide was released, shared by Sarfivez and Sammy Engstel.

00:03:28: What's the focus there?

00:03:29: It's a guide to help cities and operators build genuinely inclusive shared mobility.

00:03:34: So engaging people with reduced mobility right from the design process.

00:03:38: It's about creating a truly usable service.

00:03:40: That holistic approach is key.

00:03:42: Okay, so let's move from shared cars struggling with regulations to... lighter vehicles, the micro-mobility sector seems to be having a better time.

00:03:51: It is showing strong momentum, definitely.

00:03:53: It's backed by specific targeted investment.

00:03:56: Horace, did you notice that Loot Up, the Japanese operator, raised a significant twenty-eight point one million dollars?

00:04:02: And what's interesting there is their strategy, isn't it?

00:04:05: It is.

00:04:05: Their focus is on a universal vehicle concept called Unimo.

00:04:09: It's specifically designed to broaden accessibility, which echoes that equity focus we just talked about.

00:04:15: And

00:04:15: what unlocks this growth isn't just the vehicle design, it's the physical commitment from cities.

00:04:21: Prében Joel Jones had some compelling data from London, actually.

00:04:23: Oh, this is a great contrast.

00:04:25: It is.

00:04:26: While shared cars struggled, the city's dedicated cycle network grew massively, from ninety kilometers up to four hundred and thirty-one.

00:04:34: The result.

00:04:35: Daily bike trips surge by forty-three percent.

00:04:38: That data just reinforces that straightforward idea.

00:04:41: Build the dedicated trusted lanes and people will use micromobility.

00:04:45: And the commitments are becoming foundational policy.

00:04:48: Timo Mueller flagged that the Netherlands is committing a staggering one billion euros to cycling infrastructure by twenty thirty.

00:04:54: One billion, that's a clear statement that they see this as a national economic and mobility priority, not just a green initiative.

00:05:00: Exactly, and we're seeing it at the hyper-local level too.

00:05:03: Emily Schevler was celebrating the hundred and fiftieth residential bike hangar in Ealing.

00:05:07: And those are so crucial.

00:05:09: Those little curbside changes remove the storage barrier that stops so many people in cities from owning a bike.

00:05:15: So you have the infrastructure, but then there's the business model.

00:05:18: Mario Pressi suggested the bike industry itself needs a massive shift.

00:05:22: Away from just selling bikes.

00:05:24: Right, to operating bike as a service.

00:05:26: And that move is strategic for resilience.

00:05:29: This model, you know, monthly leasing guaranteed buybacks.

00:05:33: it could transform their revenue streams.

00:05:35: More predictable income, less unsold inventory.

00:05:38: Exactly.

00:05:39: It moves them away from those risky production run and discount cycles.

00:05:44: And that focus on resilient operations, it extends to logistics.

00:05:48: Hans Birnwagu, noted Woj, opened a new central warehouse in Poland.

00:05:53: Which

00:05:53: isn't just for storage.

00:05:54: No, it's a sophisticated move to extend vehicle lifetime and drastically improve their maintenance logistics.

00:06:00: It shows that even micro mobility needs a mature, scalable, operational backbone to be truly sustainable.

00:06:07: Okay, let's move up the tech stack.

00:06:08: Let's talk about autonomous vehicles.

00:06:09: Right.

00:06:10: Jandrika has highlighted that Europe's robertaxi landscape is really heating up.

00:06:14: It's becoming a competitive mix of US, China and local players all aiming for major twenty twenty six deployments.

00:06:22: We even saw a specific collaboration announced in Oslo.

00:06:25: Yes, between MOIA, Rooter and Hollow also starting that same year.

00:06:29: But you know that optimism around the tech.

00:06:32: We also saw a necessary reality check.

00:06:35: Brooke Krieger.

00:06:36: challenge the whole industry narrative.

00:06:38: Her

00:06:38: point was so important, she argued quite clearly that AVs will ultimately fail everywhere that public transit has already failed.

00:06:45: So it's not a tech problem.

00:06:47: It's not.

00:06:47: She argues the bottleneck is governance.

00:06:49: things like urban sprawl, revenue models built entirely on private car driving, and just deep political resistance to change.

00:06:56: So you can't just drop AVs into a broken system.

00:06:59: You can't.

00:06:59: They won't scale beyond these little pilot zones unless cities fix the foundational issues that have played transit for decades.

00:07:06: So the success stories we do see must hinge on governance that enables that deep integration.

00:07:11: Exactly!

00:07:12: And Keevan Kargar presented Abu Dhabi as the prime example.

00:07:15: They are successfully shifting autonomous taxis, buses, and drones from limited pilots to full public

00:07:21: deployment.

00:07:22: How did they manage that?

00:07:23: They built what they call a digital backbone.

00:07:26: This means connected intersections, unified control centers, and, maybe most importantly, an integrated regulatory framework.

00:07:34: One set of rules.

00:07:35: Which eliminates that regulatory uncertainty.

00:07:37: we saw cripple Zipkar in London.

00:07:39: Precisely.

00:07:39: But even with that robust governance, the operational hurdles are still significant.

00:07:45: Nicholas Nourish had a great little anecdote about two Waymo robo-taxies in San Francisco.

00:07:50: They bumped into each other, right?

00:07:51: Yeah, it

00:07:51: was a dump.

00:07:52: It wasn't a major crash, but it was two vehicles struggling to navigate a tweedouble-part street scenario.

00:07:57: A real-world edge case.

00:07:58: Exactly.

00:07:59: And it emphasizes that real-world deployment is messy, it's slow, and it's full of things no simulation can fully capture.

00:08:07: It's gonna be a long evolution, not a sudden, robots in, humans out, moment.

00:08:12: Yet

00:08:12: the efficiency metrics are starting to look promising.

00:08:15: Ryan Green pointed out an intriguing metric from California on Waymo's deadhead miles.

00:08:20: Right, the miles driven without a passenger.

00:08:22: Those are trending down.

00:08:24: They dropped from over fifty one percent to around forty four percent.

00:08:28: That trend is the strategic takeaway.

00:08:30: Now, forty four percent is still high, but the direction is key.

00:08:34: It suggests Waymo is mastering fleet dispatch and routing.

00:08:38: Which means lower operational costs and better profitability potential.

00:08:42: And that's compared to the slightly increasing deadhead miles for human ride share drivers in LA and SF.

00:08:47: It shows AVs might just be starting to win the efficiency game.

00:08:50: Okay,

00:08:51: let's look now at how corporations themselves are adapting.

00:08:54: Michael Miller stressed a key message for stakeholders.

00:08:57: Car policy is not mobility policy.

00:09:00: I

00:09:00: love that quote.

00:09:01: The shift is away from just controlling the physical fleet, which is a perk, and towards managing employee needs for efficient, flexible transport.

00:09:08: And the shift is being driven by the balance sheet, isn't it?

00:09:11: That's the crucial insight, yeah.

00:09:13: Max Coley detailed how these decisions are moving from the dealership to the finance office.

00:09:17: So we're talking about Kepex versus OPEX.

00:09:19: We are.

00:09:20: Auto subscriptions and long-term rentals let companies move mobility costs off balance.

00:09:24: They shift from capital expenditure, or Kepex, where cars lock up capital, to... operating expenditure, UP-X, which is a flexible monthly cost.

00:09:34: Which frees up a huge amount of capital.

00:09:36: And gives them far more flexibility.

00:09:38: And that need for context-specific flexibility is reinforced by new data out of Belgium.

00:09:43: Right.

00:09:43: The new Federal Mobility Survey.

00:09:45: Nicholas Forstray shared the insights.

00:09:47: While seventy-eight percent of kilometers are still done by car nationally, the regional differences are enormous.

00:09:53: Only forty-three percent in Brussels versus seventy-three percent in Rolonia.

00:09:57: That just proves that mobility solutions have to be hyper-local.

00:10:00: A one-size-fits-all policy just doesn't work.

00:10:03: It can't.

00:10:04: And yet, even when policy tries to be flexible, delays can paralyze the market.

00:10:09: Joris Spigt warned that Belgium's mobility sector is being held hostage by fiscal uncertainty due to delays with the mandatory mobility budget.

00:10:17: It's

00:10:17: the zip-car problem all over again.

00:10:19: Lack of clear, long-term rules means no one wants to invest.

00:10:23: Right.

00:10:23: And this demand for clarity feeds directly into urban design.

00:10:27: Hassan Zucker emphasized that mobility hubs have to be more than just parking spots.

00:10:32: They need to be human-scale public environments.

00:10:34: Exactly.

00:10:35: Integrating multiple modes, providing climate responsive comfort, and becoming lively community nodes.

00:10:41: Gil Cohen pointed to Detroit's new multimodal hub as a catalyst for exactly that kind of growth.

00:10:47: So if we connect the dots across all these sectors, shared autonomous corporate micromobility, what's the common thread?

00:10:55: It all comes back to the foundation.

00:10:57: Thomas Broughton used San Francisco's historic tram network to remind us that real mobility scale comes from infrastructure, not software alone.

00:11:05: And he sees that same inflection point now in shared micromobility.

00:11:09: He argues that trusted parking infrastructure, like those bike hangers we mentioned, is what unlocks real scale.

00:11:14: You can't run a billion dollar service on a fifty dollar piece of curb regulation, and we saw major global investments confirming this.

00:11:21: Richard Cupp sounded the Riyadh Metro.

00:11:23: The world's

00:11:23: longest, fully driverless metro network.

00:11:26: It is being positioned as the physical backbone of Saudi Arabia's entire smart city and investment strategy.

00:11:32: And you can complement that massive infrastructure with intelligent systems.

00:11:37: Matteo Forte highlighted the surge in demand responsive mobility, or DRM.

00:11:42: Also known as DRT, demand responsive transit.

00:11:45: So it's new here.

00:11:46: Well, it's the role of AI.

00:11:48: AI is enabling real time decision making and really complex algorithmic pooling.

00:11:53: It moves transit away from fixed schedules to flexible services that can optimize thousands of routes at once.

00:12:00: That's driving the market toward an expected eighty five billion dollar valuation this decade.

00:12:04: It

00:12:05: is.

00:12:05: And even traditional transit is innovating its planning.

00:12:08: Niels Van Oort shared that TU Delft researchers develop four future scenarios for public transport.

00:12:14: How does that help?

00:12:14: It helps policymakers visualize potential paths forward instead of just reacting.

00:12:19: The scenarios are based on whether tech acceptance is high or low, and whether change is market driven or government driven.

00:12:25: And finally, a great example of reframing existing infrastructure.

00:12:28: A beautiful one.

00:12:30: Arter Wolnicka highlighted Europe's night trains, which are being successfully reframed not as old, but as a comfortable, sustainable, scenic alternative to short-haul flights.

00:12:41: This whole deep dive, it really reinforces that technology is the engine, but policy and infrastructure.

00:12:48: They're the steering wheel and the chassis.

00:12:49: Absolutely.

00:12:50: We saw this constant, painful tension between ambitious tech like AVs, and the practical policy frameworks needed to support them.

00:12:59: You know, zip cars, exit, Belgium's budget delay.

00:13:01: So

00:13:02: you need the big foundational vision, like Riyadh's Metro, but you also need that detailed commitment like the Netherlands billion euro cycling investment.

00:13:09: And for you listening, the takeaway is that your strategy has to leverage these insights.

00:13:13: You have to shift from just reacting to the market to actively shaping it by engaging with the regulatory environment.

00:13:19: And if we connect all these points.

00:13:21: the policy failures, the infrastructure needs, the focus on efficiency, it raises a really important question for you to think

00:13:27: about.

00:13:28: What happens when market ready solutions are systematically overlooked by policy?

00:13:32: Michelangelo Liguri pointed out a powerful regulatory blind spot here.

00:13:38: Electric microcars, the L-seventy vehicles.

00:13:40: Okay, so these are ideal for urban sustainability, low resource consumption.

00:13:45: So what's the problem?

00:13:46: They are currently excluded from key EU co-eurosleep targets and funding mechanisms.

00:13:51: Wait, really?

00:13:52: So they don't count?

00:13:53: They don't count, which means manufacturers are strategically incentivized to prioritize selling heavier, less efficient vehicles that do count toward those targets, even though the L-Seven-E is a fundamentally better solution for urban travel.

00:14:05: That regulatory gap is actively preventing a more efficient solution from reaching scale.

00:14:10: That's a powerful thought to leave with.

00:14:12: The future of mobility hinges not just on what we create but on which policies we choose to champion and which regulatory blind spots we finally choose to address.

00:14:21: If you enjoyed this deep dive, new additions drop every two weeks.

00:14:25: Also check out our other deep dives on electrification and battery technology, next-gen vehicle intelligence and commercial fleet insights.

00:14:32: Thank you for joining us and we hope you walk away better informed.

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