Best of LinkedIn: Future Mobility & Market Evolution CW 09/ 10

00:00:00: brought to you by Thomas Allgaier and Frennus.

00:00:02: This adjoined highlights key LinkedIn posts on future mobility in market evolution, weeks nine and ten.

00:00:07: Frenness supports enterprises with market and competitive intelligence decoding disruptive technologies customer needs regulatory change and competitive moves.

00:00:17: so product teams and strategy leaders don't just react but shape the future of mobility.

00:00:22: So for this deep dive We're really digging into the conversations that have been absolutely dominating the mobility space over last couple of weeks.

00:00:31: And if you are out there building a product or maybe managing strategy in this sector, You've probably noticed pretty massive shift in tone recently.

00:00:38: Definitely I mean we are moving away from pure technology hype Those theoretical promises what mobility could look

00:00:45: like Right The visionary stuff Exactly

00:00:47: and were entering an era just demands proof.

00:00:50: Proof of unit economics, proof safety Honestly, proof that these vehicles actually fit into existing urban policy.

00:00:57: Yeah the rubber is finally hitting the road.

00:01:00: so our goal today Is to cut through all the noise from late February and early March To pull out the actionable insights you actually need.

00:01:06: we're gonna look at the harsh realities facing autonomous vehicles.

00:01:10: The well they really expensive.

00:01:12: growing pains of the micro mobility sector Oh yeah And the digital nervous systems are quietly trying to manage our cities.

00:01:20: Let's jump straight into the autonomous vehicle landscape, because the narrative here is experiencing some severe whiplash right now.

00:01:27: It really is!

00:01:28: On one side of this spectrum you have someone like Dennis Kalanin putting out these massive deep-tech projections.

00:01:35: he's looking at the current trajectory and projecting that autonomous driving companies could hit trillion dollar valuations by twenty thirty five A trillion

00:01:43: dollars.

00:01:44: Right, and his argument rests on the idea that robotexes will see such widespread adoption That operators will eventually just control the entire passenger mobility loop effectively

00:01:54: replacing traditional car ownership.

00:01:56: But you know a trillion dollar valuation implies a flawless path to scale which feels incredibly optimistic when you look at the current cash burn of these companies.

00:02:07: Yeah,

00:02:07: how do they justify getting from today's heavily subsidized testing environments to that kind of market cap?

00:02:13: That is exactly the question Tomoskabor raised and it is a severe reality check.

00:02:19: He argues that robo taxes won't become a bankable, investible asset class until the industry fundamentally changes how it reports its progress.

00:02:28: Because right now they're acting like R&D projects?

00:02:31: Exactly!

00:02:31: They boast about manufacturing capacity or just the sheer number of vehicles in a fleet but go completely silent on actual operating economics

00:02:40: which is most important part.

00:02:42: Gabor insists this industry has to disclose transparent metrics specifically what he calls the cost per autonomous revenue mile.

00:02:49: I love that metric!

00:02:50: It's brilliant, right?

00:02:51: it strips away all of AI hype and forces you to look at physical business.

00:02:55: He points out that empty miles so time a vehicle spends driving without paying passenger they aren't just a side effect on service They're massive tax on operation.

00:03:04: Think about those mechanics.

00:03:06: for second Every single mile that a robot taxi drives empty to pick someone up is burning energy wearing down tires requiring network bandwidth.

00:03:16: Yeah.

00:03:16: That is pure cost sitting right there in the numerator of your balance sheet, but the denominator —the metric where you actually generate revenue— that only ticks up when a passenger is physically sitting on the back seat

00:03:29: Right.

00:03:30: and if operators can't dramatically improve that ratio they aren't running highly scalable tech platform.

00:03:35: They're running deeply unprofitable taxi service.

00:03:39: And Gabor also highlights hidden infrastructure costs.

00:03:43: You know, if you deploy ten thousand vehicles in a city... ...you suddenly need small power plants worth of secured grid capacity just to keep them charged.

00:03:50: And then there's the human element of remote supervision!

00:03:53: Oh

00:03:53: man…

00:03:53: I mean.. If companies ratio of remote supervisors to active vehicles is say one-to twenty instead of one two hundred The margin profile looks like high touch human service Not

00:04:04: an autonomous machine.

00:04:05: Exactly and that remote supervision bottleneck Is already causing real world friction.

00:04:11: Philip Koopman posted about a highly public incident in San Francisco recently.

00:04:15: Oh, the ambulance

00:04:15: thing?

00:04:16: Yes.

00:04:17: A Waymo robotaxi blocked an ambulance at an active emergency scene.

00:04:21: The vehicle attempted to U-turn got stuck crossways on street and effectively just froze.

00:04:27: It needed police officer physically get into that vehicle To move it out of way.

00:04:31: right

00:04:31: Exactly And the implications are profound for anyone designing these systems.

00:04:37: Coopman points out that police officers have much more critical duties at an emergency scene than acting as tech support for a stuck robo taxi.

00:04:44: Seriously?

00:04:45: And looking forward, As these vehicles evolve to remove the steering wheel and pedals entirely how will human officer even move them in crisis?

00:04:53: It strongly suggests companies are pushing for nationwide expansion without having robust enough remote operator capability To manage those time-critical edge cases.

00:05:02: Its incredible contrast with what Josh Orenstein shared.

00:05:06: This

00:05:06: was fascinating.

00:05:07: Right,

00:05:08: while the industry here is debating how much on-vehicle computing power is required to navigate around an ambulance Finland is solving the exact same problem with zero AI and zero venture capital.

00:05:19: They're just rolling out automated traffic lights

00:05:21: Simple as that.

00:05:22: they detect an approaching emergency vehicle And just turn the light green.

00:05:26: It is the perfect juxtaposition.

00:05:28: I mean, Silicon Valley is trying to solve urban mobility with complex on-vehicle compute while Europe is solving it with simple environmental infrastructure.

00:05:37: Warnstein noted that this pilot ran across seven hundred intersections... Wow!

00:05:42: Yeah ...with three hundred emergency vehicles and it resulted in zero accidents.

00:05:48: It

00:05:49: really forces you to ask why we consistently overlook these highly effective low-tech solutions in favor of algorithmic complexity.

00:05:58: I mean, if you put yourself on the shoes of a European city planner... The skepticism toward AVs makes complete sense.

00:06:04: It does!

00:06:05: Sebastian Obeda posed fundamental questions for the industry.

00:06:08: He asked what problem our robotexies actually meant to solve?

00:06:12: Because in many dense European cities point-to-point mobility is not the primary issue.

00:06:18: Citizens can already move efficiently via extensive public transit networks, cycling infrastructure, walkable streets.

00:06:25: The actual constraints are physical space and congestion.

00:06:28: Dropping thousands of two-tonne eponymous vehicles into that environment doesn't solve the space problem...

00:06:33: No!

00:06:33: It exacerbates it.

00:06:34: Exactly.

00:06:35: And

00:06:35: if a technology arrives to solve a problem that a city does not have…it functions as pressure –not progress.

00:06:42: Bojan Zhukic echoed this warning loudly.

00:06:45: He argues that cities have to proactively manage their curb space and establish waiting rules right now.

00:06:51: Because

00:06:51: if a city doesn't dictate where these AVs can park or they can loiter during off-peak hours, how do they interact with dedicated bus lanes?

00:06:58: They

00:06:58: will quickly become self driving traffic jams.

00:07:00: Jukage explicitly warn's.

00:07:02: without immediate policy intervention we risk repeating the micro mobility chaos of twenty seventeen.

00:07:08: you know hardware was just dumped onto streets long before the rules were ready.

00:07:12: But look regardless pushback The market penetration is happening.

00:07:16: Kirsten Heinecke highlighted some fascinating McKinsey data showing that Waymo's pricing in San Francisco is rapidly converging with traditional human ride hailing.

00:07:24: Really?

00:07:25: Yeah!

00:07:26: Between April, twenty-twenty five and the end of year, Waymo average fare actually dropped by about three point six percent.

00:07:33: Meanwhile Uber's fares increased by twelve percent and lifts by seven percent.

00:07:37: Wow

00:07:38: so the price gap is practically vanishing.

00:07:40: And when price parity has achieved consumer choice is going to shift dramatically.

00:07:44: And that expansion isn't just restricted to the US and China, Peter Pavlenko noted that Pony.ai one of the Chinese autonomous driving leaders.

00:07:52: they're partnering with Stellantis in Bolt To bring level four testing to European roads...

00:07:57: ...and Just a clarify for the listener Level Four Testing means these vehicles are operating fully autonomously without human intervention but within strictly defined geofenced areas.

00:08:06: Right!

00:08:07: They starting Luxembourg With progressive rollout plan for twenty-twenty six.

00:08:11: The technology is advancing whether urban infrastructure is perfectly prepared to host it or not.

00:08:15: Which a perfect transition into our next focus area, the maturation of micro-mobility.

00:08:20: Oh!

00:08:21: Talk about an industry that had to learn brutal expensive lessons about urban geometry.

00:08:26: Seriously?

00:08:27: Just look at the scooter and e-bike operators... ...the sector has no longer focused on flooding sidewalks with vehicles just to grab market share….

00:08:35: …the conversation has entirely shifted to integration quality and unit economics.

00:08:40: The shift from theoretical hype to hardware.

00:08:43: reality is profound!

00:08:45: You brought up an incredibly candid post

00:08:59: And within three days, they realized the vehicles were fundamentally flawed.

00:09:02: They're uncomfortable for riders and structural integrity was just failing under real-world use.

00:09:07: Think about this sheer logistical nightmare...and cash burn of that scenario.

00:09:12: You launched ten thousand physical assets to dominate a market ...and within seventy two hours you realize have to recall and recycle the entire fleet.

00:09:18: It is a brutal lesson in realities.

00:09:20: hardware Helm's take away is vital for any product team listening To this....you cannot patch Hardware The way you patch software.

00:09:28: No In software, moving fast and breaking things is a strategy.

00:09:40: He stated that modern operators demand what he calls software-defined hardware.

00:09:45: These vehicles have to be incredibly robust, constantly connected and ergonomically designed for the specific rigors of a city

00:09:51: environment.".

00:09:52: And alongside that hardware maturation we're seeing user behavior fundamentally change.

00:09:57: Large Christian Gridamolson shared some twenty-twenty five data from voice showing that nearly forty percent of their total revenue now comes from subscriptions in daily passes... Forty

00:10:05: percent!

00:10:06: ...and that segment grew by sixty-five percent year over.

00:10:08: This is a critical metric because it proves micro-mobility has successfully transitioned from a novelty service for tourists into a dependable daily habit for commuters.

00:10:17: Bram Seuss backed this up with some truly impressive data out of Belgium.

00:10:21: The number of shared e-scooters on the streets actually dropped by thirty five percent, yet the total number of rides increased by twenty one percent.

00:10:29: That's the ultimate definition of operational maturity.

00:10:31: Exactly!

00:10:32: They're doing more with less drastically increasing the utilization rate of their existing assets rather than just dumping more hardware onto the sidewalk to chase growth.

00:10:43: But you know, maximizing utilization doesn't eliminate friction at the curb.

00:10:47: Thomas Broughton argues that industry still needs solve the parking problem.

00:10:51: he's advocating for a shift from reactive to proactive certainty

00:10:55: Because right now, most systems just rely on GPS and require users to take a photo of the parked scooter after the ride ends.

00:11:03: Right which is reactive.

00:11:05: Broughton is pushing for camera-based AI driven verification integrated directly into the vehicle.

00:11:11: it confirms parking compliance in real time before the ride can even be terminated.

00:11:15: It stops the sidewalk clutter from happening at first place

00:11:17: Exactly.

00:11:18: And policy makers are finally beginning to meet industry halfway To create clear frameworks.

00:11:23: Jacqueline Youngblood and Christopher Carter recently helped release a massive report from the Massachusetts Special Commission on micro-mobility.

00:11:31: Finally!

00:11:32: Yeah, instead of relying on blanket bans or just ignoring this sector entirely... The commission delivered sixteen actionable recommendations.

00:11:40: They're doing hard regulatory work

00:11:42: Like legally defining different devices by their maximum speed and setting default urban speed limits, it provides a predictable environment for both operators.

00:11:52: And the public

00:11:53: though The contrast in how different regions are handling this transition is striking.

00:11:57: Jim Hubbard Is urgently calling for the UK to finally end its e-scooter trial limbo By twenty twenty six.

00:12:03: they need permanent clear legislation so businesses can actually plan Their investments.

00:12:08: Meanwhile Tomas Feloso highlighted A shocking difference In mentality.

00:12:13: Iowa is currently proposing legislation to ban bicycles on most roads with speed limits over twenty-five miles per hour.

00:12:18: Effectively criminalizing cycling on main routes?

00:12:21: Right,

00:12:21: compare that to Europe which is investing heavily in cycling infrastructure and generating hundreds of millions of euros an annual public health mobility benefits.

00:12:28: It's

00:12:29: wild to observe such a divergence in transport philosophy And we can't discuss the evolution smaller urban vehicles without noting the explosion of the microcar segment.

00:12:39: Yes Gaiobuosi highlighted a massive boom in the Netherlands for vehicles like the Citroen AMI and the Silence SO-IV.

00:12:47: These enclosed low speed electric vehicles, they offer weather protection and cargo space but have tiny physical footprint.

00:12:56: They are absolutely perfect for those short five-kilometer urban trips.

00:13:00: You know, situations where deploying a full size two ton SUV is simply an absurd overallocation of space and energy.

00:13:07: The rise at the microcar directly challenges our default assumptions about what vehicle needs to be in an urban core which naturally leads us.

00:13:14: look at broader ecosystem

00:13:15: Right!

00:13:16: The system level

00:13:17: With robotaxes shared e-bikes Microcars And traditional public transit all operating simultaneously.

00:13:22: How does city prevent total systemic failure?

00:13:28: He argues the real power layer of modern mobility is no longer physical hardware.

00:13:33: The power lies in software ecosystems.

00:13:35: He's talking about Mobility as a Service or MAWS platforms, right?

00:13:38: Exactly!

00:13:39: Platforms that integrate different transport modes into single consumer app and fleet SaaS – the Software-as-a-Service layer operators use to manage their vehicles.

00:13:48: Alpha to Yergy argues that controlling the data, payment gateways and system integration is where long-term value compounds.

00:13:56: Hardware depreciates when it hits street but software platforms scale infinitely.

00:14:02: But for a city to actually govern this ecosystem, Remi Kay stresses that municipalities desperately need real-time system visibility.

00:14:10: Because historically City planners only realize there's problem with shared fleet density when the public starts calling in complaints about blocked sidewalks?

00:14:17: Exactly!

00:14:18: If cities integrated these software platforms access real time data on parking pressure and high demand corridors.

00:14:25: they could manage conditions proactively through dynamic pricing or routing

00:14:29: rather than just reacting months later with blunt fleet caps or outright bans.

00:14:33: There is a physical component to this integration as well.

00:14:37: Ben Van Berkel emphasized that the concept of a mobility hub, A physical location where you can seamlessly switch from a train To an e-bike Or car share it only works if The architecture is beautifully and intuitively designed

00:14:49: Makes sense!

00:14:50: If a hub feels dark confusing or unsafe commuter adoption will flatline regardless of how good the app is.

00:14:56: Andrew Firmstone Williams offered a highly creative logistical twist on physical infrastructure.

00:15:01: actually, he noted that rapid growth in the twenty to sixty minute grocery delivery sector because supermarkets are already serving as operational anchors for fleets e-cargo bikes and mopeds their car parks perfectly positioned become decentralized urban battery swapping and rapid charging hubs.

00:15:20: That's smart!

00:15:21: Instead of building new charging infrastructure from scratch, you embed it directly inside the existing operational flow.

00:15:32: And

00:15:48: she notes that this increase wasn't driven by construction delays, it was almost entirely due to sheer volume.

00:15:54: The streets are simply

00:15:55: full.".

00:15:56: Her takeaway is the solution cannot be paving more lanes...the pollution requires employers to step up offering flexible work schedules organizing car pooling platforms and providing intelligent mobility budgets that incentivize employees leave their private cars at home.

00:16:11: Nikolas Fristredo brought in supporting data from Belgium's latest homework travel survey that proves these behavioral shifts are possible.

00:16:19: While the private car remains the dominant mode of commuting, the rate of cycling to work has doubled overall

00:16:25: and in Brussels it is increased almost eight-fold over the last twenty years.

00:16:29: The

00:16:29: survey also noted an explosion in electric company cars.

00:16:33: this data proves that sustainable corporate mobility policies.

00:16:38: They're an essential lever for talent recruitment and overall operational efficiency.

00:16:43: To bring all of these threads together, we have to look at the capital markets.

00:16:47: Erwin Cousinet and Jorm Wingard both analyzed the current venture capital landscape.

00:16:52: Yeah noting that European mobility VC funding is significantly cooling down from its post-COVID peaks.

00:16:59: in fact Europe's share of global mobility funding has been cut in half since twenty nineteen.

00:17:04: But it is crucial to understand that this cool-down isn't a signal for sector failure.

00:17:08: Not at all.

00:17:08: The mobility industry is maturing.

00:17:10: Investors are shifting their capital away from wild speculative innovation and demanding execution, operational excellence And clear paths to profitability.

00:17:20: Europe still possesses massive natural advantage due its high urban density and historic public transport infrastructure.

00:17:26: What the industry requires right now is conviction from investors as the market navigates to a difficult transition from early-stage hype into scalable, profitable market penetration.

00:17:37: It's genuinely fascinating how all these moving parts—the harsh unit economics of a robotaxi… The structural integrity of a scooter... The data layers managing the curb and VC funding environment —how they're forcing a complete reimagining.

00:17:52: They

00:17:53: absolutely are.

00:17:54: And that brings me to a final provocative thought I want to leave you with, inspired by a post from Burngrush.

00:18:00: Okay

00:18:01: When industry professionals discuss the future of urban mobility it is very easy to fall into extremes.

00:18:07: We either envision a clean perfectly optimized robotaxi utopia where private car ownership is obsolete or a dystopian gridlock of isolated single occupancy vehicles.

00:18:18: Grush points out that neither of those extremes will materialize anytime soon.

00:18:21: Exactly, instead what we are facing is a messy decades-long mixed transition.

00:18:26: We're entering an era where highly advanced autonomous sleets unpredictable human driven cars microcars and vulnerable cyclists must all fight to share the exact same physical curb space.

00:18:36: So this raises a critical question for you the listener as you evaluate your own product roadmaps.

00:18:41: Is Your Strategy Built Exclusively For The Clean Theoretical Endpoint Of twenty thirty five?

00:18:47: Or is your business actively prepared to navigate and monetize the messy middle that's unfolding on our streets right now?