Best of LinkedIn: Future Mobility & Market Evolution CW 13/ 14

00:00:00: Brought to you by Thomas Allgaier and Fredis, this edition highlights key LinkedIn posts on future mobility in market evolution weeks thirteen and fourteen.

00:00:08: Fred is supports tier one automotive suppliers with early stage market validation for their R&D efforts by combining secondary research direct OEM expert interviews and facilitated customer meetings.

00:00:19: You can find more info in the description.

00:00:22: so Welcome to the steep dive.

00:00:24: You know, especially if you're a mobility professional navigating all these changes right now.

00:00:28: We are so glad to have you with us today.

00:00:30: Yeah

00:00:30: Thanks for joining us.

00:00:31: our Our mission for today's session is really to cut through a lot of the noise out there because You know, if you look at the industry right now we are moving out of this era of like hyper growth and experimentation.

00:00:43: Right?

00:00:43: The Wild West phase Exactly!

00:00:44: The wild west.

00:00:45: And were stepping into much more operational discipline system level kind of era.

00:00:52: Yeah

00:00:52: We've been combing through top future mobility trends on LinkedIn over past two weeks to really pin it down And we clustered everything in three main shifts for today.

00:01:02: Right, so we'll be looking at the sudden maturation of micro-mobility.

00:01:07: The total unbundling of autonomous driving and finally those systemic infrastructure bottlenecks...

00:01:13: ...the bottlenecks that are really forcing everyone to rethink things.

00:01:17: let's just jump right into that first theme micromobility because I feel like the narratives here has completely flipped.

00:01:22: Oh totally!

00:01:23: For years it was a land grab.

00:01:25: Yeah, burning cash.

00:01:27: You know companies dropping thousands of e-scooters onto city sidewalks overnight and just, well figuring it out later.

00:01:33: Figuring

00:01:34: it out when the City complains basically.

00:01:36: but Catherine Kiefer at The McKinsey Center for Future Mobility just posted some really interesting data on this.

00:01:42: oh yeah she highlighted that six of the top ten shared E scooter operators in Europe actually reached profitability for twenty-twenty four and twenty-five.

00:01:52: Wait, really?

00:01:52: Six out of ten are profitable.

00:01:53: now I mean...I gotta admit i'm slightly skeptical about that.

00:01:56: how do you go from losing millions on you know vandalism in hardware decay to suddenly turning a profit ?

00:02:03: I Know it sounds like clever accounting right but It's actually fundamental shift.

00:02:08: In their unit economics they uh They stopped treating the hardware Like its disposable.

00:02:14: The vehicles Are way more durable Now And More Importantly Operators are getting ruthless about where they launch.

00:02:21: They aren't just fighting for market share everywhere anymore,

00:02:23: which you know.

00:02:24: that perfectly explains Fredrik Helm's recent post about Voie.

00:02:27: Oh

00:02:27: yeah the Netherlands launch Yeah.

00:02:29: So Voie finally launched in The Netherlands specifically and groaning it but they only deployed this highly targeted fleet of like Four hundred bikes.

00:02:38: hmm And the crazy part they kiln pointed out is that?

00:02:41: It took them seven years to crack This Market.

00:02:43: Seven Years Of Trying yeah

00:02:46: anything.

00:02:46: well the Netherlands Right.

00:02:48: Bikes are practically a religion there, it should be easy.

00:02:50: But that's exactly why its so hard When the country is THAT obsessed with bikes.

00:02:54: Like Helm noted in Groningen Up to sixty-five percent of all trips Are already taken by bicycle.

00:02:59: That's

00:03:00: massive!

00:03:00: Right.

00:03:01: So residents already own like two or three private bikes.

00:03:05: So Voy couldn't just use their standard copy paste playbook.

00:03:08: They

00:03:08: had to get surgical

00:03:09: Exactly.

00:03:10: They spent years working with local authorities to find the exact friction points, you know?

00:03:14: Like first and last mile gaps at the main train station where a shared bike actually makes more sense than a private one.

00:03:21: That make total sense.

00:03:22: It's like surgical deployment instead of carpet bombing city.

00:03:27: And speaking of cities, regulators are getting way more surgical now too.

00:03:31: We've got this whole carrots versus sticks approach happening.

00:03:33: Oh yeah user behavior is the big bottleneck

00:03:36: right?

00:03:36: So George D just broke down this landmark New Deal in London In The Lambeth Borough and it's definitely a massive stick.

00:03:44: Yeah lambeth essentially treating these operators like strict public utility

00:03:49: Completely.

00:03:50: I mean, it's bay only parking.

00:03:51: if a rider leaves the bike even slightly outside The painted box that council seizes It and immediately slaps the operator with a fine.

00:03:58: Wow.

00:03:59: But the part i thought was really wild is?

00:04:01: That lambica Is legally forcing these operators to align their pricing With standard bus fares.

00:04:06: see that is fascinating

00:04:08: right like why would A city council care what a private tech company charges for a scooter ride?

00:04:13: it's all about cannibalization because If a shared e-bike is way cheaper than taking the bus, commuter's just abandoning public transit system.

00:04:22: Oh and then the city loses transit revenue?

00:04:23: Exactly!

00:04:24: The City loses money...the streets get clogged.

00:04:26: so by forcing price parity Lambeth ensures that micro-mobility is acting as an extension of a bus network rather than a parasite feeding off it.

00:04:36: Okay So thats the stick in London.

00:04:38: But Ronald's Ables posted about a totally different approach that Bolt is doing in Latvia, which is much more of a carrot.

00:04:44: Right the writing score system?

00:04:46: Yeah

00:04:46: they track your parking accuracy you're breaking patterns all that and if your score goes up You actually unlock financial perks like free reservations Which

00:04:54: is brilliant because they have to do something.

00:04:57: operators realize They can't just keep eating those massive city fines.

00:05:00: it destroys their margins

00:05:01: yeah And you can't physically babysit every single writer.

00:05:04: Right, so you have to gamify the compliance.

00:05:07: But looking at all this—the price matching?

00:05:09: The gamification... I have to ask is it just early ride-hailing playbook happening again and over?

00:05:16: How do we mean that?

00:05:17: Like ten years ago Uber & Lyft burned billions of subsidized rides right?

00:05:22: Just to permanently change our habits!

00:05:24: And now that we expect a scooter on every corner….

00:05:27: the adults are finally focusing on unit economics.

00:05:31: Is time actually different?

00:05:34: I think it is different yet, and the key difference E-bikes emit seventy percent less CO² per kilometer than electric cars.

00:05:54: Seventy percent less then an EV?

00:05:55: Yeah,

00:05:56: but the real kicker is the embedded carbon.

00:05:58: The carbon it takes just to build a e-bike is forty times less that in an EV.

00:06:02: Oh my

00:06:02: god!

00:06:03: Forty times!

00:06:03: Forte time.

00:06:04: So you have drive an EV for years.

00:06:06: Just break even on the carbon debt from mining battery metals.

00:06:09: An e-Bike pays off its debt almost immediately.

00:06:12: That's wild.

00:06:13: I mean if your listening right now and manage a fleet or doing city planning You just cannot ignore that efficiency.

00:06:20: Using a two thousand kilogram vehicle to move one person three kilometers across town is, well it's basically irrational at this point.

00:06:28: It totally is and really right.

00:06:29: sizing the hardware as perfect transition into our second theme today which is the autonomous mobility shift.

00:06:36: Yes because autonomy has having its own reality check

00:06:40: Exactly.

00:06:41: The whole narrative is moving away from tech hype and focusing on commercial execution, the days of tech companies trying to build everything themselves are over.

00:06:50: we're seeing a total unbundling of the robor taxi value chain

00:06:53: which we saw perfectly illustrated by the news out of Zagreb Croatia.

00:06:58: Alexander Shab along with Annabel Diaz Calderon in Marcin Masirog all highlighted the launch of Europe's first commercial robot taxi service there.

00:07:06: Right, and the structure of that Zagreb deal is basically the blueprint for the future.

00:07:11: because

00:07:12: I mean let's unpack how we got here.

00:07:14: a few years ago The Silicon Valley dream was to own the full stack right?

00:07:20: Yeah build the car.

00:07:21: you write this self-driving AI.

00:07:22: You owned the physical fleet And you run the consumer app.

00:07:25: Yeah, which was an ego-driven capital intensive nightmare.

00:07:29: Exactly Augustine Friedl pointed out that companies have finally accepted they just can't control every layer.

00:07:35: the Zagreb model separates it beautifully.

00:07:38: you pony.ai, providing the tech Just The Software.

00:07:43: Then a completely different company Verne owns cars and handles local regulatory headaches And then Uber just acts as aggregator capturing writer demand.

00:07:52: It's like a restaurant You have farmer growing food chef cooking it Delivery app getting into your door Right.

00:07:57: nobody tries to do all three anymore.

00:07:59: Friedel noted this happening at silicon level too with Nvidia.

00:08:02: Oh yeah, Nvidia isn't selling chips now

00:08:04: Right.

00:08:05: They're selling full reference stacks, AI models ready to go.

00:08:08: so instead of an auto company building AI from scratch NVIDIA gives them the foundation and the manufacturer just pours their own driving data into it which

00:08:16: speeds up the time to market dramatically

00:08:18: exactly.

00:08:19: but you know getting this software to work is really only half the battle.

00:08:24: Laura Hirsig made this great point at The European AV Summit.

00:08:28: she basically said A pilot is not a small fleet.

00:08:31: Yeah, that's such a crucial distinction!

00:08:33: Running five robo-taxes is just a PR stunt.

00:08:36: Exactly running five hundred robo taxis though yeah That is massive gritty real estate problem.

00:08:41: Oh huge you need physical depots?

00:08:44: You need charting stations deep cleaning operations and you have to solve the legal nightmare of data ownership because those sensors are collecting terabytes of data every single day.

00:08:54: And speaking of data, we have to talk about transparency because Merck VanZura brought up a really sobering counterpoint with the Baidu Apollo Go fleet in Wuhan China.

00:09:04: Oh man yeah this is the incident where the robotaxis just froze

00:09:06: right?

00:09:07: Yeah they literally bricked in the middle-of-live highway traffic.

00:09:10: it caused rear end crashes passengers were trapped inside.

00:09:14: but van Zura's main argument wasn't just about the software bug

00:09:17: Because bugs will always happen

00:09:19: Right.

00:09:19: his issue was the dangerous lack of transparency afterward.

00:09:23: When something like that happens, independent regulators can't access the raw data to audit what went wrong.

00:09:30: it's a complete black box held by the manufacturer and Vanzura made the point that if an aviation authority couldn't look inside a black box after plane crash nobody would ever fly.

00:09:40: That is great analogy.

00:09:41: so not just software issues but fundamental trust issue which actually makes me think Autonomy is basically becoming the airline industry, right?

00:09:49: Yeah I'd say so.

00:09:50: Like

00:09:51: Boeing builds the plane Delta flies it Expedia books that take it It's totally unbundled.

00:09:56: but in Europe The regulatory environment acts like this highly strict air traffic control.

00:10:02: Do you think that strictness is actually a competitive advantage for Europe?

00:10:06: It absolutely, and both Daniel Serra-Sagara and Lucas Neckerman argued exactly at point.

00:10:12: Yeah I mean Europe's approach as notoriously slow and strict.

00:10:16: but they argue the friction has feature not bug

00:10:19: because it forces quality.

00:10:20: Exactly The US in China allowed these rapid kind of chaotic deployments.

00:10:26: But Europe acts like rigorous testing lab.

00:10:29: Their streets are older, more complex and the safety standards are just uncompromising.

00:10:35: So if you can pass the European test.

00:10:37: You have a system that is inherently secure And one the public will actually trust.

00:10:41: Exactly!

00:10:42: You've proven it in the hardest environment.

00:10:43: That makes perfect sense.

00:10:45: But this actually leads us right into physical wall In our final theme for today System level evolution an infrastructure bottleneck.

00:10:53: Yes

00:10:54: The reality check of physical space

00:10:56: Because you could have the most advanced robot taxi in the world or the most efficient e-bike, and none of it matters if the physical city cannot hold them.

00:11:04: Which brings us back to that terrifying stat from Luke Rust

00:11:07: The hundred thirty thousand dollar parking space.

00:11:09: Yeah Let's explain then.

00:11:11: Why does a concrete rectangle in a basement cost as much as luxury sports car now?

00:11:16: It is not just inflation

00:11:18: No!

00:11:18: Its compounding engineering complexity.

00:11:21: As cities get denser developers have to dig deeper They hit the water table, they need specialized labor, crazy expensive materials just to prevent the basement from flooding.

00:11:31: So just building parking is ruining the financial model for housing?

00:11:35: Totally!

00:11:35: It's forcing developers to build car-free developments because The Mad demands it which is actually altering how corporations think about mobility too.

00:11:44: Oh right...the Nicholas Firstrade post.

00:11:46: Yeah, Firstrade analyzed Belgian corporate mobility budgets And the numbers are wild.

00:11:51: He found that seventy-seven percent of the mobility budget isn't going to company cars anymore, it's going housing allowances.

00:11:58: Wait I really want make sure i get this.

00:12:00: companies paying their employees rent instead giving them a car?

00:12:03: Yes because absolute most sustainable commute is one just doesn't happen.

00:12:08: Oh wow proximity

00:12:11: Exactly.

00:12:12: If you can help an employee afford a place that's a fifteen-minute walk from the office, You've solved the bottleneck.

00:12:18: they don't need to parking spot They don't sit in traffic .They Don't produce emissions.

00:12:22: That is brilliant It such as smart reallocation of capital.

00:12:26: But of course people still do need To move around this city and when they do The physical clutter Is getting intense.

00:12:32: Remy Kay posted This observation From London Transport Hubs.

00:12:36: that was just wild.

00:12:37: Oh, the Domino bikes!

00:12:38: Yeah he showed these pictures of shared bikes stacked outside a train station literally falling over like dominoes... Just completely blocking the sidewalks for wheelchairs and pedestrians.

00:12:49: And you know.. The immediate reaction is always to blame the riders right?

00:12:52: Like oh people are just lazy and careless

00:12:54: Right.

00:12:55: but Remy pointed out it's actually a mathematical failure.

00:12:58: city planning.

00:12:59: How so?

00:13:00: Well, think about it.

00:13:01: If hundreds of people get off a train and need a first-mile solution the demand requires say fifty bikes.

00:13:08: but the physical space outside that station was built in the twentieth century to hold maybe ten bikes

00:13:13: right.

00:13:13: So you force fifty bikes into a ten bike space And a slight gust of wind knocks the whole thing over.

00:13:19: It's a structural bottleneck, not just bad user behavior.

00:13:23: Heta Hyerdahl echoed this perfectly.

00:13:25: She called secure bicycle parking The Missing Link in policy Because we spend... billions of dollars geeking out over battery chemistry and AI, but we completely ignore the geometry where these vehicles sit when they aren't moving.

00:13:41: If you buy a three thousand dollar premium e-bike?

00:13:44: You're not going to commute on it if your only parking option is chaining into street lamp?

00:13:48: Exactly!

00:13:49: The infrastructure has to be there to unlock the adoption hardware And also comes down to asset utilization right like how hard does that vehicle working when it is on the road.

00:14:00: Oh,

00:14:00: for sure!

00:14:01: Adeeb Samara shared a really great insight from Riyadh about this.

00:14:04: Yeah

00:14:04: looking at Black Lane The Premium chauffeur service they run an all-electric fleet which you know sounds great for the environment.

00:14:11: but Samara pointed out that real win isn't electric motor

00:14:15: It's utilization rate.

00:14:16: Exactly

00:14:17: One single black lane chauffeur serves roughly ten different executives throughout one day.

00:14:22: By providing that reliable premium service, they effectively take four to five privately owned executive cars completely off the road.

00:14:31: Those private cars aren't driving in and they aren't sitting idle at a hundred thirty thousand dollar parking spot for eight hours!

00:14:39: They just don't exist.

00:14:40: And that right there is the crucial shift in perspective.

00:14:43: Efficiency and space utilization, Is The New Definition of Eco-Friendly?

00:14:49: Because if you just take a massive gas SUV and swap it for a massive electric SUV You

00:14:54: haven't solved the geometry problem

00:14:55: Right!

00:14:56: You've just changed the tailpipe...you haven't fixed the street.

00:14:58: Yeah.

00:14:58: so If you are listening to this right now..and your mapping out your strategy....You really have to ask yourself Are you just swapping out the powertrain, or are actually redesigning this system to solve physical constraints?

00:15:10: The real winners in next era won't build as smart cars.

00:15:14: They'll figure how fit them into our cities'

00:15:18: concrete

00:15:23: reality.".

00:15:23: Well, we spend this entire time talking about physical space right?

00:15:26: Infrastructure distance.

00:15:28: But Max Batler recently hosted a discussion on a concept called chrono-shift.

00:15:32: Greener

00:15:33: shift!

00:15:33: Yeah and it completely flips the metric of how we evaluate mobility.

00:15:38: he argues that We need to stop measuring mobility in kilometers And start measuring It In Minutes.

00:15:43: So measuring Time instead of Distance

00:15:46: Exactly because time equity is quietly becoming The defining social challenge Of our infrastructure.

00:15:52: think About those housing Allowing allowances we just talked about.

00:15:54: Right.

00:15:54: Wealth buys proximity, people with resources can afford to live near the transit hubs or right by their offices but those with fewer resources are pushed further out into the editors of The City.

00:16:05: Ah

00:16:06: I see where this is going...

00:16:07: Right so they're paying for daily commute in their lifetime.

00:16:11: A two hour daily commute essentially a structural tax levied on person's lifespan.

00:16:16: Man That is a profound way to look at it.

00:16:20: You aren't just losing money on gas or train tickets, you are literally paying with hours of your life that she will never ever get back.

00:16:28: Exactly!

00:16:29: So as mobility professionals the ultimate KPI shouldn't be getting a piece metal from point A-B as efficiently as possible.

00:16:36: The real goal is give people their timeback.

00:16:40: It's about what we do in between and ultimately who gets the privilege.

00:16:45: That

00:16:46: is a lot to think about.

00:16:48: Well, if you enjoyed this episode new episodes drop every two weeks.

00:16:51: Also check out our other editions on electrification and battery technology next-gen vehicle intelligence And commercial fleet insights.

00:16:59: Yeah Thank You so much for joining us For This conversation today.

00:17:01: Keep

00:17:02: questioning the systems around you!

00:17:03: Don't forget to subscribe To stay ahead of The curve in the mobility industry.

00:17:07: We'll catch ya Next time.